Near Term...[Through Tonight]
With the showers and thunderstorms continuing to push further inland with the faster moving sea breeze front aided by outflow boundaries, expect the higher PoPs (between 30 and 50 percent) to shift northward across much of our AL and GA zones. In fact, with new
developing storms moving southward across Central AL and GA, just
raised PoPs in this area another 10 percent until midnight tonight
in case a merger does occur. Further to the S, just kept 20% PoPs in
across all of our N FL counties as well as the southern strip of our
GA and AL zones.
Very late tonight, expect some convective re-development across the Marine Area, with some of these possibly moving onshore across some of our Coastal counties. At this time, the most favored areas would appear to be over Bay and Gulf counties, where 40% PoPs were added between 08 and 12 UTC.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Wednesday]...
As an upper trough will continue to dig down and just east of the
Atlantic seaboard, a cold front will drop through the SE CONUS
Monday and Tuesday before stalling over or just north of our CWA
Depending on how far south the front progresses, will determine PoP distribution for Wednesday. For now we will show a drier airmass filtering into our northern tier GA and AL zones with only slight PoPs there. Otherwise, with forecast PW`s between 1.75" and 2.0" combined with the increasing instability and lift we expect at least scattered (30-40%) convection all zones during the daytime periods. Max temps will be in the lower 90s inland with possibly a few mid 90s around the Valdosta region on Wednesday.
LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
The upper level ridge out west will weaken and flatten while the east coast trough deepens with the axis retrograding just west of the local region by the weekend. The aforementioned stalled front should dissipate by Friday.
A shortwave is forecast to round the base of the trough Friday into Saturday accompanied with deep layer moisture. For now will keep Pops in the chance category but this may need to be adjusted up as we approach mid week. Temperatures will stay near or just above seasonal normals.
Aviation...[Through 18Z Monday]
With the sea breeze convection a bit more widespread than on Saturday due to the stronger SW Flow, have convective tempos at TLH, ECP, and DHN this afternoon.
At present, believe that VCTS will be sufficient at ABY and VLD, but amendments may be needed if the sea breeze generated outflows continue to push the showers and storms further inland towards ABY and VLD.
Then, VFR conditions should prevail for the first part of the night, but stuck fairly close to persistence (which has been hard to beat) for the
late night and early morning hours, which is quite pessimistic once
Went with a period of IFR conditions at TLH, ECP, and VLD, and LIFR at ABY and DHN, before VFR conditions gradually improve.
Outside of any thunderstorms, and with a weak pressure gradient in
place, very light winds and minimal seas are expected over the
coastal waters through most of the upcoming week.
With plenty of low level moisture still remaining in place, no Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days.
The Middle Suwannee River points from Ellaville through Luraville
will crest over the next 24 hours below action stage as the
Withlacoochee has already crested through the confluence with the
Suwannee. The Alapaha has crested at Jennings and will soon be
cresting near its confluence with the Suwannee near Nobles Ferry.
Modest rises from Branford on through the lower portion of the
Suwannee will continue throughout the weekend and through the latter part of this coming week from Wilcox on down to the Gulf of Mexico Entrance. These rises will bring the river points from Wilcox
through Fowler`s Bluff to at least action stage this week. Wilcox at
US19 has the best chance of reaching flood stage late in the week
with a lesser chance further downriver at Fowler`s Bluff.
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, all remaining rivers in the
forecast area remain in recession. The Aucilla River will continue
to fall slowly and likely be below flood stage by mid week.
Releases from Woodruff will continue to lead to a fall in river levels at
Blountstown with the Apalachicola likely below action stage by the
weekend if the current release schedule holds.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 74 91 72 93 73 / 20 40 30 30 20
PANAMA CITY 78 90 75 89 76 / 30 40 20 30 20
DOTHAN 73 91 72 93 72 / 30 40 30 40 20
ALBANY 74 91 73 93 73 / 40 40 40 40 20
VALDOSTA 73 92 73 94 73 / 20 40 40 40 30
CROSS CITY 72 91 72 92 73 / 30 40 20 30 20
APALACHICOLA 77 88 76 88 77 / 30 30 20 30 20