NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Dry air seems to be winning out for now with afternoon convective
development and see no reason that this will change. As a result,
expect a quicker decrease in storm coverage this evening as the sun
The disturbance moving up from the Gulf will likely eject some mid and upper level cloudiness over the eastern portion of the region which will limit fog development there. However, there is a greater potential in the western portion of the forecast area for fog development after midnight.
Lows will be on the warm side, generally in the lower 70s inland to mid 70s at the coast.
SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday]...
Deep layer moisture and Q-G forcing will increase enough to support
likely PoPs Sunday, as the system currently over the Gulf of Mexico
Another round of forcing/moisture will come Sunday night and Monday as the base of a long wave trough translates slowly eastward across our forecast area. The PoP for Monday is 50%, though this could increase in subsequent shifts.
The increased clouds will help keep high temperatures down a bit-
in the mid to upper 80s. SPC has much of the eastern third of the
CONUS in a 5% risk of severe storms Sunday, including our forecast area. Although the NWP guidance does forecast a slight increase in the winds aloft, our 0-6km bulk shear magnitude is only about 20 KT,
and (because of poor 700-500mb lapse rates and cloud cover) SBCAPE values are expected to remain below 1000 J/kg. These factors would suggest a minimal severe threat for our area.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through next Saturday]...
The Southeast U.S. will be under northwest flow aloft, once a trough passes east of us on Tuesday.
Late in the week a fairly potent trough will develop along the Southeast coast, though the GFS and ECMWF differ on where and how strong. Until then, with relatively dry, sinking flow aloft, the model consensus PoP for our forecast area is below average (around 30%).
In this type of synoptic pattern we do have to watch for MCS development to our north, as they can dive into our region any time of day, and are generally not forecast well by the NWP guidance this far out in time.
Typically this is a warm weather pattern for our region in the summer months, and the model consensus high temperatures are in the mid 90s.
AVIATION [through 18 UTC Sunday]...
Isolated convection this afternoon should be near the DHN/ABY
terminals around 20z but handled this activity with a VCTS group.
After any storms dissipate, expect a round of MVFR vsbys/cigs after
midnight, with potential IFR conditions at ECP/DHN.
Showers and storms will develop quickly on Sunday morning with convection nearing the sites between 14z and 16z.
Winds and seas will increase a bit tonight as the weak low pressure
trough over the Gulf of Mexico approaches.
The strongest winds will likely be over our western marine zones, but are still expected to remain below exercise caution levels.
Once the disturbance moves inland Sunday morning, winds and seas will return to typical summertime levels for the next few days.
Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds as daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms continue well into next week.
Despite recent heavy rains in the eastern FL Big Bend/North FL area,
area rivers remain below action stage. The WPC QPF total for the
next 5 days is 1 to 1.5 inches, but isolated amounts could be much
higher than this.
However, the localized nature of this heavy rain potential precludes the need for any type of flood watch.
The most vulnerable locations, as usual, are urban environments, where even short durations of high rain rates can cause flooding.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 86 70 89 71 / 20 60 30 50 20
Panama City 74 84 74 86 74 / 20 60 40 40 20
Dothan 72 85 71 89 72 / 20 60 40 50 20
Albany 72 86 71 89 71 / 20 60 40 50 30
Valdosta 70 89 71 92 69 / 20 60 30 50 30
Cross City 72 87 70 89 70 / 20 60 30 50 20
Apalachicola 73 84 74 85 74 / 20 50 30 40 10