NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...
Convection has not been as widespread as previous days, perhaps due to a large area of cloud cover reducing instability this afternoon.
Whatever convection does develop through the early evening hours
should diminish fairly quickly over land after sunset, with some
scattered convection remaining over the water and perhaps right near
the coast during the overnight hours.
SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday Night]...
The cold front that is currently near/in the northern parts of our forecast area will sink south into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-36 hours and be replaced by a cooler and drier air mass.
GOES Blended TPW product shows a sharp precipitable water gradient from northern Alabama to coastal South Carolina, and the air mass north of this gradient is very dry for this time of year.
This dry air mass will arrive later on Sunday and into Monday, with PWATs likely to be 2-3 standard deviations below normal.
Although some isolated showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out on Sunday (particularly in our Florida zones), Monday could conceivably be the first totally dry day across our area in quite some time.
There will also be some slight boundary layer cooling with 850mb
temperatures falling about 2C behind the front. This will offset
the expected sunnier skies to produce high temperatures around
normal levels (upper 80s to close to 90 degrees).
It should also be noticeably less humid, especially on Monday.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
High pressure is forecast to dominate the weather pattern over the
southeast with very dry mid-level air from Tuesday through Thursday.
After that time, increasing moisture should lead to a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours.
Temperatures should be fairly steady, with highs around 90 degrees or so for much of the extended forecast.
AVIATION [through 18 UTC Sunday]...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of scattered convection through the period. Any convection this afternoon is expected to diminish quickly after sunset.
A period of MVFR to IFR CIGS is possible around sunrise on Sunday for a few hours.
Easterly flow could get close to 15 knots in some areas offshore late tonight, but SCEC headline is not currently anticipated.
As we stay in easterly flow, with the pressure gradient increasing on
Sunday Night, some 15-20 knot winds are possible and a SCEC
headline will likely be needed at that point.
Lighter winds and seas are expected beyond that.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next several days. High dispersion values are expected across most of northwest Florida on Sunday and Monday.
Although some flooding lingers across the area, notably on the
Aucilla, Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Apalachicola, and Chipola
Rivers, an upcoming period of drier weather should mean that
flows will continue to decrease this weekend and into next week.
One possible exception would be the Suwannee River where routed
flow from tributaries will finally be arriving over the next week or two, and long term forecasts from the river forecast center take a few points above bankfull stage.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 89 69 90 70 / 30 30 10 10 10
Panama City 74 88 72 89 73 / 40 30 20 10 10
Dothan 72 88 68 87 69 / 30 10 10 0 10
Albany 70 88 67 88 68 / 20 10 0 0 10
Valdosta 70 88 67 88 68 / 20 20 10 10 10
Cross City 71 89 69 90 70 / 30 40 20 10 10
Apalachicola 75 86 74 88 74 / 40 40 20 10 10
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