NEAR TERM [This Evening and Tonight]...
A broken band of heavy rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
continues to slowly shift east with time this afternoon across the
forecast area (and our Florida zones in particular). The stronger
convective cells appear to be situated along a composite outflow
boundary / quasi-stationary front, with trailing light-moderate
stratiform rain behind that (encompassing much of the western half
of our forecast area).
Therefore, high PoPs were maintained through the evening hours, particularly in the western two-thirds of our area. The high-resolution guidance including recent runs of the HRRR and our local TAE-WRF appears to be doing a poor job representing ongoing conditions. They dissipate the convection far too fast and have generally dry conditions advertised over our area around 19-20 UTC. Therefore, we expect that the ongoing rain and storms will linger for at least another few hours.
The guidance (including global models) indicates that the rain and storms will consolidate back to the west later this evening and
tonight. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch was kept as is - which
expires for our GA and eastern FL zones at 03 UTC, with much of
the heavy rainfall after that time expected west of those areas.
This will have to be closely monitored this evening, though. Given
the environment (high PWATs, efficient rain processes), the threat
of flash flooding continues across the area wherever heavier rain
bands can set up.
SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday Night]...
The quasi-stationary front may begin to slowly shift a bit further west on Sunday and lose its character as a low-level ridge builds into the Southeast from the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, there should be less of a large-scale focusing mechanism for convection tomorrow (or it should be situated just north and west of our area).
However, guidance still shows relatively high PoPs with continued high PWAT environment and southerly low-level flow. Therefore, we maintained likely PoPs over much of the area.
A similar story exists for Monday, although with slightly more uncertainty we opted for high chance (50%) PoPs instead - but it
could end up being another high coverage day for rain.
Daytime temperatures should continue to be a little cooler than normal.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
Southeast low-level flow gradually backs to more of an easterly
direction as an upper level ridge builds into the region. This should equate to more suppressed convective activity with time, and overall PoPs show a decreasing trend through the extended forecast.
However, there should still be daily thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures will be closer to normal, perhaps warming to slightly above normal by later in the week.
AVIATION [through 18 UTC Sunday]...
Low CIGS and showers with embedded convection will prevail with
MVFR-IFR conditions expected to continue this evening at ECP, DHN,
and ABY and develop later overnight and tomorrow at TLH and VLD.
Brief periods of LIFR CIGS and vsbys are expected in the heaviest
bouts of rain.
With some breezy southeast winds being observed over the western
waters at the moment (peak winds to near 20 knots), we have
inserted a SCEC headline through tonight west of AAF.
The winds will be slightly weaker in the eastern half of our coastal zones, but could still approach 15 knots at times.
Winds and seas will lessen somewhat tomorrow morning, followed by a stretch of easterly flow with winds around 10 knots and seas 3 feet or less.
Abundant moisture and rainfall will prevent red flag conditions from being met well into next week.
Widespread rain with some heavier bands continues this afternoon
across much of the area. A lot of the rain over the western half
of our area has been due to a band of heavier rain showers and a
few thunderstorms. This band has been producing rain rates of up
to 2-3 inches per hour, but has been showing steady eastward
Therefore, flash flooding issues have been isolated (so far) to urban areas around Panama City.
The rain and storms should continue into the evening - possibly affecting areas further to the east - but then will eventually re-consolidate back to the west after midnight and into tomorrow.
Given the widespread nature of the moderate to heavy rainfall, many river systems around the area should see notable rises and
increased flows, except for perhaps the far southeast part of our
area in Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie counties.
The rivers, as of a week ago, were running at lower levels than what we had seen for most of July, so it has taken a considerable amount of rain to move some to even a bankfull status.
Flooding issues will be determined by the location of the heaviest rainfall over the next 1-2 days, although a few rivers that may be particularly at risk include: Choctawhatchee, Shoal, Apalachicola.
The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS web page at:
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 90 73 91 73 / 60 60 30 50 30
Panama City 76 87 76 88 76 / 60 60 40 50 30
Dothan 71 86 72 89 72 / 70 70 30 50 30
Albany 71 88 72 90 72 / 70 60 30 50 30
Valdosta 71 90 72 91 72 / 60 50 30 50 30
Cross City 73 90 72 91 72 / 40 50 40 40 30
Apalachicola 78 87 77 86 77 / 50 50 40 50 30
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 11 PM EDT this evening for all zones
east of the Apalachicola River.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening for all zones west
of the Apalachicola River.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 11 PM EDT this evening for all zones.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening for all zones.
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