NEAR and SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday]...
The presentation of Tropical Storm Karen has become quite poor
overnight, and up until the last couple of hours, it appeared to be
no longer associated with any convection at all.
However, a new cluster of storms has recently formed well to the SE of the circulation, and while it may never be pulled back into the low level circulation, PoPs and QPF should still be on the rise over our CWA late tonight and especially on Sunday.
This wet weather is expected to continue through Monday as Karen (or what`s left of it) becomes absorbed by the approaching shortwave trof.
The positive news is that today should have very limited PoPs, with 20 to 30 percent chances (at best) across SW portions of the CWA, with any showers or storms unlikely to affect the FSU-Maryland game which begins at noon today in Tallahassee.
Temps will be quite warm or even hot this afternoon, and based on a likely reduction in cloud cover, the Max Temps for today may need an upward adjustment of a few degrees over parts of the interior on the morning update.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Thursday]...
The first part of the extended period is a little tricky because there is still some uncertainty as to when and where Karen will make landfall. For now the official forecast shows Karen passing through our northern CWA.
This system will quickly exit to our east as an upper level trough and associated cold front sweep in from the west. Deep layer ridging and a much drier airmass will filter into the area for the remainder of the work week. Temps will be at or just below seasonal levels through the period.
At least MVFR ceilings and VIS expected at all terminals through the
morning hours. ECP, ABY, VLD could see IFR ceilings develop
especially in the 11-13Z time frame. Cirrus and mid-level stratus
associated with Karen should continue to slide into the area by
mid-day, however all sites should remain at VFR from late morning
through the end of the period.
Tropical Storm Karen has weakened significantly and is forecast to
have a substantially lower impact on the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Winds and seas are still forecast to peak on Sunday with winds
POSSIBLY up to 40 knots.
Seas will likely remain below 10 feet at their peak.
Winds will turn northwest and fall to below headline criteria by late Monday afternoon.
No fire weather concerns.
With the substantial weakening of Karen, and marked decrease in
convection in association overnight, Storm Total QPF has been
trimmed back significantly across the board, with generally between
1 and 2.5 inches of rain now expected with locally higher amounts
still possible through Monday.
While the potential for locally heavy rainfall will still need to be monitored as Karen interacts with an approaching upper level trof and Sfc cold front from the west, significant riverine flooding is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 88 70 83 71 87 / 10 30 70 50 40
Panama City 85 75 81 75 84 / 30 40 80 50 20
Dothan 87 68 82 67 84 / 10 30 80 60 30
Albany 88 65 83 69 84 / 10 20 70 70 50
Valdosta 88 66 85 69 86 / 10 20 50 50 50
Cross City 87 67 87 72 86 / 10 20 50 50 40
Apalachicola 84 76 82 77 84 / 30 40 70 50 30
TROPICAL STORM WATCH for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.