This was the coldest morning since March 29th.
The minimum temperature at Tallahassee was 38 degrees but several locations over the northwest corner of our CWA dipped into the mid 30s.
After a chilly start, we expect highs to top out around 70 north to mid 70s extreme southeast zones.
The forecast has been resent only to remove expired frost advisory headline for our northwest zones.
NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The 02 UTC regional surface analysis showed an area of high
pressure across most of the Southeast, with a 1030 mb high
centered in northwest AL. This high will become centered over the
FL Panhandle late this afternoon, so winds today will be light
(less than 10 MPH) from the north.
Despite plenty of sunshine, some residual, weak cold air advection and relatively poor vertical mixing will limit our high temperatures to the upper 60s to lower 70s (except mid 70s around Cross City).
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Benign weather is expected through the short term.
A weak upper level disturbance is expected to move through the region late on Sunday, but dry air in place is expected to prevent any showers from occurring in the area.
Daytime highs will be near the seasonal average of mid to upper 70s across the area on Sunday, with a slight warming trend possible on Monday.
Overnight lows will be well below average once again tonight with dry air, clear skies, and light winds with lower 40s common away from the coast.
The airmass will modify some by Sunday night with warmer lows
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
Upper level high pressure will build eastward and remain in place
at least through Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, model guidance begins to diverge in the treatment of the next upper level trough and corresponding surface cold front.
The GFS suggests a rainy Halloween as a cold front pushes into our forecast area Thursday and then stalls it over us for the remainder of the period.
Instead, this forecast package went closer to the ECMWF, which
brings the cold front in on Friday and into the weekend.
With model confidence being fairly low however, kept PoPs to slight
chance (around 20%) Thursday and Thursday night and chance
(30-40%) on Friday.
Unrestricted vis and cigs will continue across the region.
Winds will be NW to NE, with sustained speeds ranging from 3 to 7 KT.
As high pressure over the southeast slowly moves off to the east,
winds will shift from northeast to east through the period.
Winds are expected to increase to 10 to 15 knots by Monday afternoon with slightly higher winds possible by Tuesday into Wednesday.
This afternoon will likely be the driest of this recent stretch of cool, dry air, as RH values once again fall well below 30% this afternoon.
However, other factors (i.e. ERC, wind, etc.) will not meet local Red Flag criteria.
The airmass will moisten slightly Sunday, and continue this trend into the following work week.
No rainfall is anticipated through Wednesday next week, keeping
river levels stable and below action stage.
Late next week, a cold front will approach the area, however model confidence in the timing of this system is low, making it hard to forecast impacts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 40 78 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 70 50 77 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 69 43 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 69 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 70 40 76 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 75 41 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 71 47 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
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