NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
High pressure continues to build eastward over the Tennessee Valley
this afternoon with the high centered just west of Knoxville. Expect
this area of high pressure to slide eastward into the Carolinas
overnight and relax the pressure gradient across the Deep South and
into our region.
Though this will be the coldest night of the season thus far, model guidance still indicates that a good portion of the area across South Central Georgia down into the Florida Big Bend will not be close enough to the high pressure center for winds to go calm sufficiently long enough for temperatures to drop too much lower than 40 degrees.
Further to the west, particularly across Southeast Alabama and in the Georgia counties west of the Flint River, the surface ridge axis looks to align favorably for surface winds to go calm for a few hours before sunrise, allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 30s and patchy frost to be possible in these areas, where a frost advisory is now in effect.
SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A weak impulse in the otherwise zonal upper level pattern will swing
over the southeast Saturday through Sunday night.
With surface high pressure over the southeast, no boundaries or other near-surface sources for forcing, and very dry lower and mid-levels, rain chances remain insignificant as it passes through.
We may, however, see some gusty winds and scattered cloud cover, with higher coverage to the northwest.
Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Lows Saturday night will be in the low 40s.
By Sunday, mostly clear skies for several days and a lack of additional fronts moving through will allow us to begin to warm back up.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 40s to around 50 as cloud coverage increases.
LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
The period begins with mostly zonal flow aloft and a weak impulse
over southern Georgia.
As the impulse ejects to the northeast, upper level high pressure will build eastward and remain in place at least through Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, model guidance begins to diverge in the treatment of the next upper level trough and corresponding surface cold front.
The GFS suggests a rainy Halloween as a cold front pushes into our forecast area Thursday and then stalls it over us for the remainder of the period.
Instead, this forecast package went closer to the ECMWF, which brings the cold front in on Friday and into the weekend.
With model confidence being fairly low however, kept PoPs to slight chance (around 20%) Thursday and Thursday night and chance (30-40%) on Friday.
VFR conditions expected through the period.
Gusty northerly winds will diminish by sunset on Friday evening.
Lighter winds are expected for Saturday.
As high pressure over the southeast slowly moves off to the east,
winds will shift from northeast to east through the period.
Cautionary winds from today have decreased and are now around 15
knots, weakening further tomorrow.
Winds will pick up and approach cautionary levels again Monday afternoon, subsiding Wednesday.
3-4 ft seas offshore will fall to 2-3 ft tomorrow and remain low until
early next week when they will begin rising then falling with the
corresponding surge in winds.
Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels on Saturday afternoon but other required criteria will not be met.
A gradual moistening trend will begin on Sunday with relative humidity
values remaining above critical levels through much of the upcoming
The next chance of rain is not anticipated until at least Thursday.
No rainfall is anticipated through Wednesday next week, keeping
river levels stable and below action stage.
Late next week, a cold front will approach the area, however model confidence in the timing of this system is low, making it hard to forecast impacts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 39 72 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 72 44 70 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 66 38 68 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 67 36 69 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 71 39 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 77 40 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 73 47 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
GA...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday.
AL...FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 7 AM CDT Saturday.