NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The current forecast remains on track.
An upper level frontal wave, associated with energy from the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, is just about clear of our forecast area. Therefore the high clouds that crept into our eastern zones early this morning have since moved out, giving way to a beautiful, dry, clear and sunny day with highs in the mid 70s.
SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
The trough over much of the eastern CONUS will lift out out of the
Southeast on Saturday.
Nevertheless, it will be relatively cool this period, especially considering how long it has taken for the first significant cool spell of the season.
Lows Friday morning will be in the mid 40s, and highs Friday will range from the upper 60s around Dothan and Albany to mid 70s in the FL Big Bend.
The MOS consensus is quite cool for Saturday morning, with lows in the mid 30s inland and away from urban areas. This may be too low given that the surface high pressure center is likely to be well north of our forecast area, which usually means there will be just enough wind
throughout the night to prevent it from getting this cold.
If it were to get this cold, however, patchy frost would be possible.
Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The warming trend will begin on Sunday as high pressure starts to
move to the east of the region and Southerly flow begins by the
first of the week.
Models split by the middle of next week on the next storm system. The 23/00z Euro prefers a more southern solution, indicating a strong storm system nearing the forecast area by Thursday. The 23/06z GFS keeps much of the energy with this system in the northern stream, lessening any impact to our forecast area.
For now, will split the difference between these two outcomes and show gradually increasing pops by Wednesday night.
Any substantive rain chances are outside the range of this forecast.
Temperatures throughout the period will warm a few degrees each
day with temperatures back above climo (77/52) by Monday afternoon.
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are anticipated through the period.
Winds and seas, currently at exercise caution levels, will abate by
this afternoon and evening.
Rather low winds and seas will continue until Friday, when a dry cold front will precede a fairly strong high pressure system, causing winds and seas to increase to near caution levels.
Winds will slacken considerably Saturday afternoon.
Although RH values will be at critical levels this afternoon, winds will be light and red flag conditions are not expected.
For Friday, even drier air will move in with slightly longer durations of low RH values. The winds may also be greater than 10 mph in portions of southeast Alabama, but KBDI values there are still less than 500, so red flag conditions are not currently expected.
With no appreciable rain expected for the next several days, river
stages will remain below action stage.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 76 45 74 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 75 55 73 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 73 47 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 74 45 69 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 76 45 71 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 75 44 77 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 55 74 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
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