NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Mid and upper level cloudiness will persist across most of the CWA overnight, however, no rain is expected.
Min temps will range from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The upper level synoptic pattern will stay relatively in place during the short term period with high pressure ridging over the west coast and a low pressure trough over the eastern CONUS.
As a wave of energy will swing through Monday through Tuesday night, deepening the trough and allowing some enhancement of upper level divergence and rising air.
At the surface, a boundary lingers over the northern Gulf with warm moist air just to our south while an inverted trough in the western Gulf slides northward.
Yesterday, the models were in pretty high agreement that the boundaries in the northern Gulf combined with upper level enhancement would render showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday night.
However, while consensus was high between the models yesterday,
the overnight and morning runs of the GFS and NAM were both drier
than the previous runs, while the ECMWF remains persistent in its
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The upper level synoptic pattern will continue to stay in place during the long term period.
High pressure ridging will sit over the west coast while a trough hangs over the eastern CONUS. The trough will de-amplify early in the period as a wave of energy ejects to the northeast, but will likely deepen again towards the end of the period, as another wave of energy swings through the trough.
With a cool, dry air mass in place, rain chances will be low through the period (less than 10%) and temperatures will be noticeably cooler
with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s to around
AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...
A brief period of patchy fog with MVFR vsbys is possible in the pre-dawn hours at ABY and VLD.
Otherwise, VFR conditions throughout the TAF period with light northeast to east winds.
Winds will generally be from the northeast at 10 knots or less with
waves of 1 to 2 feet through Tuesday.
Tuesday night, northwest winds at cautionary to advisory levels should arrive as a reinforcing cold front makes its way across the coastal waters.
SCEC winds seem to be likely, and advisory conditions will be possible, particularly offshore.
A strong cold front will bring a much drier airmass into the region
later in the week.
Red Flag conditions may be possible by Thursday for a portion of the Tri-state region.
Despite chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday night, rainfall amounts will not be high enough to cause significant rises on area rivers.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 82 63 80 57 / 10 20 30 30 20
Panama City 62 79 66 78 62 / 10 20 30 30 20
Dothan 53 77 58 76 52 / 0 10 30 30 10
Albany 55 78 60 77 52 / 0 10 30 30 20
Valdosta 61 80 63 79 57 / 10 30 30 40 30
Cross City 63 83 67 81 64 / 10 30 30 40 30
Apalachicola 67 79 68 79 65 / 10 20 30 30 20
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