NEAR TERM [Today]...
12Z surface analysis shows the slow-moving cold front across our forecast area extending northeastward from Apalachicola to Monticello then across south-central Georgia, passing south of
Fitzgerald. The upper level jet is situated just northwest of the
surface front, placing the southeast under the right entrance
region of the jet. This is increases upper level divergence and
enhances rising motion just northwest of the frontal boundary.
As the front stalls across our area today, and the upper level jet
slowly lifts northeastward, scattered showers and very isolated
thunderstorms will continue to form near the boundary, focused
mostly west/north of the boundary.
Cloudy skies west and north of the boundary will keep highs in the upper 70s to around 80, with highs on the warm side of the front in the mid to upper 80s.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A slow-moving surface cold front will gradually shift east thru the forecast area this weekend. Through much of the period the area looks to be situated in the aforementioned right entrance region of a 110-130 knot upper level jet.
Therefore, a chance of showers lingers through the weekend with higher chances on Saturday when the surface cold front lies west of our area. SREF probabilities of 0.01" of rainfall this weekend are
quite high over much of the area, but probabilities of 0.25" are very low.
This should translate to decent coverage of light showers, particularly from late tonight into Saturday afternoon. It is possible that models are underestimating PoPs a bit given above-normal PWATs coinciding with the weak-moderate 700-300mb QG convergence for most of Saturday. For now we went about 10% above the model consensus. Tonight will be warm with increasing cloud cover. However, the cold front along with clouds and rain showers
should keep temperatures closer to normal values thereafter.
LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
A closed upper low is forecast to drop into northern Minnesota
Sunday night and then eastward across the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday before lifting northeastward through Thursday.
This will carve out a very deep trough over the eastern CONUS and
send a strong cold front through the Tri-state region Wednesday
with a colder and a much drier airmass by the end of next week.
For Sunday, a quasi-stationary front will linger over or just south of our CWA. Will keep low PoPs for now but most areas may not see any rain.
Monday through Tuesday looks like it could be very unsettled with the approach of the cold front combined with abundant deep layer moisture and embedded impulses in the southwest flow aloft.
Rain will begin to taper off from west to east on Wednesday.
Highs will be in upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday through Tuesday... mid 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower to mid 70s Thursday.
Lows will range from the lower 50s extreme northwest zones to mid 60s southeast Monday gradually cooling to the upper 40s northwest zones to upper 50s southeast on Thursday.
AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...
With a stalled weak cold front laid out across the area, heavy (but VFR) cloud cover and scattered showers are expected today,
particularly near ECP, DHN, ABY, and TLH.
MVFR vsbys possible overnight again at ECP, ABY, and VLD.
Fairly light winds and benign seas will be the story through Saturday evening.
After that, northerly winds will begin to increase behind a cold front, with SCEC winds possible briefly late Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Northeast to east winds will prevail into the early part of next week - a flow regime that typically favors surges of higher winds at night.
We are not currently forecasting SCEC conditions after Sunday morning, but it is a possible scenario from a pattern recognition standpoint.
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
However, dispersion indices will be low, well below 30 along and
behind the front today and Saturday.
Rainfall through the weekend is expected to be light, with no flooding problems expected on area rivers and streams.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 84 68 82 63 81 / 40 30 40 30 20
Panama City 83 70 80 64 79 / 40 40 50 20 20
Dothan 79 64 76 56 78 / 20 40 50 20 10
Albany 78 65 78 58 79 / 30 40 50 20 10
Valdosta 84 67 82 63 81 / 30 20 40 30 20
Cross City 88 66 85 65 82 / 10 20 20 20 20
Apalachicola 82 70 82 65 80 / 40 30 40 30 20