NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
After some patchy morning fog and mid-level Cigs burn off, expect a
mostly sunny and very warm day with highs reaching the upper 80s
across most areas with mid 80s near the immediate coast.
SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Monday]...
The local area will reside on the eastern periphery of the upper
ridge as a trough digs off the southeast U.S. coast. At the surface,
a weak pressure pattern will remain through Sunday followed by a
tightening gradient Sunday night into Monday as a wedge of high
pressure builds in from the northeast. Dry weather will continue
with warm days and seasonably cool nights.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
Mainly dry weather is expected through next week.
Both the 11/00z ECMWF and 11/12z GFS show a frontal boundary approaching the area by late in the week with a low end chance of showers. Most of the upper level dynamics remain north of the area on these runs, and the frontal boundary appears to be weakening as it approaches the area.
Afternoon highs are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland with mid 60s along the coast.
AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...
The fcst is a bit more tricky overnight than earlier expected, as both the numerical guidance and Hi-Res models did not do a great job in picking up on the patchy MVFR level fog which has already developed near some of the terminals, or on the expanding area of VFR level Cigs (save the HRRR) across eastern portions of the CWA overnight.
Therefore, did go a bit more pessimistic this cycle with at least some period of MVFR level conditions at each Taf site until after sunrise.
Prevailing VFR conditions should hold for the remainder of today and at least the first half of tonight.
With a weak surface pressure pattern expected to hold through the
weekend, winds and seas will remain quite low.
By early next week a stronger ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in from the north. This will cause winds and seas to increase back into the moderate range, but likely still below headline criteria.
Despite the fairly dry air and unseasonably warm afternoon temps,
conditions are not expected to approach Red Flag Levels anytime in
the near future.
No significant hydrology concerns are expected through the next
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 88 55 87 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 86 64 88 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 86 58 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 86 57 87 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 88 56 86 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 88 55 86 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 84 62 85 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 0