NEAR TERM [Rest of Today]...
In the wake of a cold front, conditions began rather chilly this
morning. The 10 AM temperature here in Tallahassee is 56, although
it is expected to steadily warm into the upper 60s to near 70 for
the southeastern most counties in our CWA.
Expect our northernmost counties, which saw temps at our just below 40 this morning, to be a few degrees cooler this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
A fairly strong gradient between the surface ridge to our northwest and the exiting cold front to our southeast will keep the winds up, expect around 15 mph with gusts near 25 mph.
Clear skies are expected for most of the day, although some upper level clouds will enter into the area from the west late this afternoon.
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...
The 500 mb flow will be mainly zonal over the Southeast this
weekend, with generally fair, mild weather expected for our forecast area.
The coolest period will be Saturday morning, with most of the region (away from the beaches and cities) reaching the lower to mid 40s. This is a few degrees warmer than the MOS consensus, as we think that the non-zero wind speeds will prevent maximum cooling.
A modest warming trend will begin Saturday afternoon. Clouds will increase Saturday night and Sunday as a weak upper level short waves translates across the Southeast.
The ECMWF and NAM MOS have a slight PoP for our area Sunday, but it doesn`t appear that the Q-G forcing will be that strong so we`ve
gone with the MOS consensus, which is 10%.
LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The extended period will feature a prolonged period of mostly zonal flow aloft.
A few upper-level PV anomalies may pass over head through early next week, though we will likely be too dry to even squeeze out even a light shower, mainly just waves of upper-level cloudiness are expected.
By midweek, the zonal pattern is interrupted as a much larger anomaly dives south out of the northern stream flow into the Midwest and Southeast.
At this time there are differing solutions as to how wet the resultant frontal system will be as it nears the local area, but it appears as
though significant rainfall is not anticipated.
Winds will be out of the northeast gusting to near 20 knots this afternoon.
No VIS or CIGS restrictions are anticipated through the period.
Advisory conditions were occurring across much of the marine area
early this morning, but there is good agreement among the model
solutions that winds will fall below advisory levels near shore
later this morning.
Borderline advisory conditions will continue in our offshore zones into Saturday morning.
Light to moderate NE to E winds will be the rule for the remainder of this weekend.
Although relative humidity values will drop in the wake of yesterday`s cold front, they will not reach critical values to cause fire weather concerns.
No hydrology concerns are expected through this weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 70 41 74 52 78 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 66 48 72 53 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 69 40 69 49 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 69 40 70 47 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 71 41 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 66 45 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 67 51 72 57 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Saturday for Coastal
Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.