NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The main focus of today`s discussion will be the cold frontal passage expected to occur from west to east throughout today. Currently it is located just east of Pensacola, and should clear our eastern forecast area shortly after midnight.
Current radar and surface observations indicate light to moderate showers over the western Florida Panhandle. Although some hi-res model guidance suggests the line of showers dying before reaching the Big Bend, these hi-res models didn`t initialize accurately. The HRRR has consistently shown accurate representation of current shower activity. Therefore decided to update PoP forecast based on the HRRR`s evolution of showers throughout today. The main upper level energy will continue to lift north, diminishing upper level support for ongoing showers as they move eastward. Therefore expect showers to fall apart as they move into our eastern zones.
Otherwise just made a few minor tweaks to the grids. Expect clouds to increase from west to east, and then clear as the cold front traverses our forecast area. Have a NW/SE temperature gradient, with high temperatures in the lower 70s in our far northwestern zones and lower 80s in are far southeastern zones.
SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
The 500mb flow across much of the CONUS will become fairly zonal
tonight and Friday, as the trough currently translating eastward over the eastern U.S. "lifts out" quickly to the northeast.
The airmass across our region will be quite dry and a little bit cooler than what we`ve observed the past few days, so we expect fair weather and for temperatures to be near climatology.
LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
The long term looks to feature relatively benign weather with zonal flow expected to be in place through much of the period.
This will yield partly to mostly cloudy days with temperatures largely remaining at or just a few degrees above climatology through the period.
The only notable exception to this may be toward the tail end of the long term period when both the GFS and Euro are indicating the pattern over the Eastern CONUS will become a little more amplified, thus slightly elevating the potential for higher rain chances in the
region. However, confidence at this time range is low.
AVIATION [Through 12z Friday]...
Mid-morning conditions show improvement as fog then clouds begin
to lift to MVFR then VFR and remain so through 12z Fri.
Cold frontal passage will occur over our terminals today bringing the
chance for showers at ECP, DHN, ABY, and TLH.
Confidence remains low at this time if showers will hold to make it as far east as VLD.
Nly winds around 10 knots with gusts around 15-20 knots are expected later today in the wake of a passing weak cold front.
There will be a lull in the winds and seas this morning as the
pressure gradient continues to weaken ahead of a cold front.
Winds and seas will then increase to advisory levels from west to east behind the cold front late this afternoon into tonight, and
perhaps lingering on and off through Friday as well.
A weak cold front with limited moisture will move across keeping RH
well above critical values.
In its wake, a much drier airmass will overspread the area on Fri.
Minimum inland RH will drop into the upper 20s but critical durations are not expected. Dispersion values will remain within acceptable ranges each day.
The airmass will begin to moisten up again on Sat.
No hydrology concerns are expected through the weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 81 45 71 44 75 / 60 0 0 0 0
Panama City 76 48 69 51 73 / 60 0 0 0 0
Dothan 73 41 67 41 73 / 70 0 0 0 0
Albany 77 42 67 41 71 / 30 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 81 45 69 43 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 82 50 73 47 78 / 20 10 0 0 10
Apalachicola 78 50 69 52 72 / 60 0 0 0 0
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Friday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.