NEAR TERM [Today]...
High pressure centered over New England and extending down into the Mid Atlantic States will move off into the Atlantic today resulting
in the low level flow across the region shifting to include more of
an easterly component. This will allow for more Atlantic moisture to move back into the region later this morning and into the afternoon hours.
With the increase low level moisture, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies by afternoon, especially east of a Tallahassee to Albany line.
There`s also a low chance of a few sprinkles, mainly along and east of I-75 in the afternoon as depicted in a few of the local WRF runs.
With a cool airmass still in place and cloud cover increasing during the afternoon, expect temperatures to remain below normal with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60 in Srn Al/Ga and in the mid 60s in much of North Florida.
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
A broad, flat 500 mb ridge over the Gulf Coast region will give way to a fast, eastward-moving trough Sunday Night and Monday.
An ill-defined cold front will accompany this trough, though the GFS
and ECMWF differ on the timing of this system. While there appears
to be fair Q-G forcing and mid-upper level moisture with this trough, boundary layer moisture, convergence, and Lifted Index values will be poor.
MOS PoPs from the various models are not in good agreement so we averaged the forecasts and "broad brushed" our entire forecast area in a 30% PoP for Monday. Our QPF is under a tenth of an inch. Thunderstorms are highly unlikely over land.
Overnight temperatures will be near average Sunday with lows in the
40s, then above average Monday with lows near 50.
Highs will be near to slightly above average Sunday and Monday, ranging from the mid 60s in our northern zones to lower 70s south.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The longwave trough over SE region on Mon exits ewd on Mon night
with upstream ridge and rising heights overspreading region with
axis overhead Wed aftn.
It lingers into Thurs before exiting Ewd in response to full latitude trough developing over Plains with increasing SWLY steering flow shifting Ewd. This trough then lifts Newd thru Fri taking much of dynamics with it.
Atlc surface low moves Newd into open waters Mon night into early Tues while another low moves from Plains to across Great Lakes thru period dragging a trailing cold front ESE reaching Cntrl AL by end of period with Atlc high moving increasing Ewd.
All this places local area increasingly in warm sector but moisture will remain limited.
Generally isold to wdly sct light pops Thurs then wdly sct-lo sct Thurs night and wdly sct-sct pops Fri and Fri night.
Temps will rise thru the period to above climo.
Expect Inland lows generally in mid 40s Mon night, low 40s Tues night, mid to upper 40s Wed night rising to low to mid 50s Thurs night and mid 50s Fri night.
Inland highs Tues mid to upper 60s, 67 to 74 Wed and 70 to 75 Thurs and mid 70s on Fri.
AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions prevail at TAF issuance with ceilings around 6kft
starting to impact VLD.
Expect the VFR level ceilings to gradually spread westward and lower with time throughout the day.
Should see a period of MVFR ceilings at VLD around sunrise into the early afternoon hours.
There`s potential of MVFR ceilings at TLH/ABY during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday but the probability isn`t high enough at this time to include in this TAF set.
After 00z Sunday, expect more widespread MVFR ceilings to develop with more pessimistic conditions likely after 06z Sunday.
This morning is likely to be the last "Exercise Caution" conditions
over the next several days, as a high pressure ridge settles across
the region Sunday afternoon and greatly reduces the pressure
The weak cold front passing through the marine area on Monday and Monday Night will have very little impact on winds and seas.
With low level moisture increasing in easterly flow, no fire weather
conditions are expected today.
With no significant intrusion of drier air expected through much of the upcoming week, there are no fire weather concerns expected through next week.
QPF amounts through Thursday are expected to be less than 0.25
inches, so we do not expect any major hydro issues for the upcoming
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 66 45 69 50 68 / 0 0 10 20 30
Panama City 67 49 67 55 68 / 0 0 0 20 30
Dothan 61 42 65 49 67 / 0 10 10 30 30
Albany 60 41 64 46 65 / 10 10 10 20 30
Valdosta 62 45 67 50 66 / 10 0 10 20 30
Cross City 69 48 73 52 70 / 10 10 0 20 30
Apalachicola 69 49 68 55 68 / 0 10 0 20 30