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Dothan Area Weather Forecast Nov 3

DISCUSSION...

The 00 UTC regional surface analysis showed a large, strong area
of high pressure across the eastern CONUS.

The pressure gradient in our region was fairly strong (with the high centered well to our north), so the winds will not be calm all night.

This will somewhat limit cooling, and our lows will be in the mid 40s
(around 50 at the beaches and in the cities).

Small Craft Advisory conditions will be in effect starting later tonight over our coastal waters.

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Our region will be dominated by a strengthening ridge of high pressure centered over the northeast states.

This ridge will create a fairly strong pressure gradient across the area on Monday and Tuesday (creating somewhat breezy conditions at times), and there may be just enough instability to produce a few light showers over the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the far southeast big bend by Monday afternoon and Tuesday.

Daytime highs are expected to range from the upper 60s well to the north to the mid 70s well to the southeast. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Monday night away from the coast with warmer lows expected areawide on Tuesday night as low level moisture increases.

LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...

The large scale pattern will remain progressive through the period.

Strong upper level ridging centered off the east coast of Florida will flatten out as the next longwave trough moves into the Ohio Valley by Thursday.

The next cold front is expected to move through the local area around Thursday with a chance of showers.

Instability looks marginal at this time, and the main dynamics are expected to pass north of the area, so only a slight chance of thunderstorms is currently expected.

On Saturday, the 03/00z ECMWF shows a brief increase in moisture with a weak system while the 03/00z GFS keeps things dry. A low chance of showers was introduced for this time frame.

Temperatures behind the frontal passage are expected to be near the seasonal average.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with clear skies.

Northeast winds around 10kts will diminish overnight and increase again Monday after 17Z to 10-15kt with gusts to 18kt.

MARINE...

Winds will increase to advisory levels tonight as a very strong ridge of high pressure builds in over the northeast U.S.

Advisory level winds are expected to continue out of the east through
mid-week with rough seas expected.

FIRE WEATHER...

RH values may briefly drop below critical levels Monday afternoon
in southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama, however Red Flag
conditions are not expected.

RH values will begin to increase across the region Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY...

No significant hydrology concerns are expected through the next
seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee 41 73 50 74 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 50 74 55 75 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 43 71 45 70 55 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 42 70 44 70 54 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 44 71 48 70 56 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cross City 44 75 53 77 58 / 0 20 10 20 20
Apalachicola 50 73 56 73 63 / 0 0 10 10 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for all zones.


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