NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
222 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2013
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure remains in control at the surface with plenty of dry air aloft. Northeasterly low-layer flow will continue to moisten the Tri-State area as the surface ridge elongates across the Eastern Seaboard.
As the ridge builds down the east coast, the gradient will increase enough to prevent winds from going calm overnight.
Working in tandem with the increasing moisture, the tightened gradient will keep temperatures from falling to the freezing mark (except possibly patchy spots across southeast Alabama and the western Florida panhandle).
Further, the light winds will likely prevent any frost formation overnight.
Low clouds will be a possibility with the low level moisture surge,
primarily east of a line from Albany to Tallahassee.
Any area with cloudy skies will struggle to fall below the 40 degrees.
SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The large scale pattern begins with a series of shortwaves riding
east in Nrn stream while broad ridging develops over SE region in the
wake of departing weak shortwave.
At surface, high off New England with ridge building down Ern seaboard and coastal trough from off NE FL to off SC.
This combination will tighten local gradients.
Sunrise temps will be warmer than previous mornings, and a freeze
even for in the northwest corner of Coffee and Dale counties is
During the rest of the period, broad ridging will weaken as a series
of shortwave move Ewd ahead of Cntrl Plains trough.
This upper trough will move Ewd and deepen into longwave trough on Mon over SE region bringing increasing mid and high clouds but will be moisture starved especially at low levels before axis exits Ewd by sundown then offshore Mon night.
At surface, high moves further into Atlc and ridge/gradients weaken somewhat thru Sun in response to approaching upper trough.
NE flow will suppress convection but should be sufficient for low clouds and possibly isolated light shwrs to move Swwd to reach especially our Ern counties over weekend.
NE flow, weakening pressure gradient and higher PWATS should also be just enough to generate some fog most sites late Sat night into early Sun but especially the next night ahead of front.
Nil POPS thru Sun night then wdly sct POPs on Mon.
Warming trend thru the period.
Expect highs Sat from 60 North to 70 SE Big Bend rising on Sun and Mon to mid 60s North to 70-73 SE Big Bend.
Lows Sat night from low 40s North to around 50 SE Big Bend and on
Sun night from mid 40s North to low 50s.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The longwave trough over SE region on Mon exits ewd on Mon night
with upstream ridge and rising heights overspreading region with
axis overhead Wed aftn.
It lingers into Thurs before exiting Ewd in response to full latitude trough developing over Plains with increasing SWLY steering flow shifting Ewd.
This trough then lifts Newd thru Fri taking much of dynamics with it.
Atlc surface low moves Newd into open waters Mon night into early Tues while another low moves from Plains to across Great Lakes thru period dragging a trailing cold front ESE reaching Cntrl AL by end of period with Atlc high moving increasing Ewd.
All this places local area increasingly in warm sector but moisture will remain limited.
Generally isold to wdly sct light pops Thurs then wdly sct-lo sct Thurs night and wdly sct-sct pops Fri and Fri night.
Temps will rise thru the period to above climo.
Expect Inland lows generally in mid 40s Mon night, low 40s Tues night, mid to upper 40s Wed night rising to low to mid 50s Thurs night and mid 50s Fri night.
Inland highs Tues mid to upper 60s, 67 to 74 Wed and 70 to 75 Thurs and mid 70s on Fri.
VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals but KVLD overnight.
Late tonight, MVFR ceilings will overspread KVLD from the east.
It is uncertain whether or not the restrictions will reach KABY and KTLH.
A scattered to broken top-end MVFR deck will be possible tomorrow afternoon at KTLH, KABY, and KVLD, with the best chance for restrictions at KVLD and KABY.
Moderate to marginally strong NE winds will persist through Saturday
night, with periods of "Exercise Caution" conditions possible over
the outer coastal waters.
After a lengthy period of rough boating conditions, winds and seas will finally fall to low levels during the day on Sunday, and last at least into early next week as the pressure gradient weakens considerably.
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for the next several days.
Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not anticipated.
Area rivers elevated from rainfall earlier in the week are now receding.
Rainfall totals through Wednesday are expected to be less than a quarter inch and should not have any impact on river stages.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 40 65 45 68 49 / 0 0 0 10 20
Panama City 41 64 50 67 54 / 0 0 0 10 20
Dothan 35 60 42 65 47 / 0 0 0 10 20
Albany 36 60 42 64 46 / 0 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 41 64 45 66 50 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cross City 43 71 50 73 52 / 0 10 10 10 20
Apalachicola 42 64 51 67 54 / 0 0 0 10 20