NEAR TERM [Rest Of Today]...
Zonal Flow Regime Aloft Will Prevail Through Tonight As Ridge Of
High Pressure At The Surface Remains Established From The
Carolinas Into North Fl.
Area Of Weak Showers And Clouds Across Apalachee Bay And The Coastal Bend Locales Was Associated With A Weak Trough Moving Across The Northern Gulf Of Mexico.
This Activity Will Likely Continue For Much Of The Day Keeping Higher
Pops And Clouds Over The Eastern Bend And Coastal Franklin/ Wakulla Counties.
Elsewhere A Mix Of Clouds And Sun Will Allow Some Heating Within Seasonably Cool Air Mass.
Expect Highs Today To Range From The Lower/Mid 60s Over The Northern Counties To The Upper 60s Into Northern FL. Highs Over The Bend Region Will Be Trickier Due To The More Persistent Cloud Cover, Will Drop Current Forecast A Few Degrees Over This Area.
Pops Will Be Tricky As Well Given The Likelihood Of Only Light QPF From Anything That Does Fall. Local Convective Allowing Models Still Bullish Today, But Expect Most Areas To Remain Dry. Will Adjust Pops Accordingly.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
The local area will reside under the northern periphery of mid/upper level ridging through the end of the week. Ridging continues through the surface, though we transition to being closer to the center or southern edge of the high, resulting in a steady easterly flow regime.
Expect the middle and upper troposphere to be rather dry through the period, though PWAT values will be slightly above average due to the low-level Atlantic moisture transport.
The combination of low-level moisture, and isentropic ascent over a cool wedge of air across the Tri-State region will allow for isolated to scattered light showers on Thursday (especially across south Georgia and southeast Alabama).
On Friday, warming temps and a slightly less favorable upslope trajectory should put an end to any sort shower activity.
Temperatures tonight and Thursday will stick pretty close to near
climatology, though some low cloudiness and higher dewpoints may
keep temps a bit warmer along and east of a line from Valdosta to
Panama City. Thursday night and Friday should feature temperatures
10-15 degrees above average, in the lower 60s at night and middle
to upper 70s on Friday.
LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
An upper trough will deepen over the eastern U.S. going into the
weekend, and drive a cold front through the Deep South.
Above normal temperatures are expected on Friday and into Saturday ahead of this system.
With a ridge in place over the southeast on Friday, dry weather is expected to continue.
As the front pushes through late Friday night into Saturday, is is expected to be accompanied by a band of showers. With upper support and low-level convergence expected to be rather weak, no thunder is anticipated with rainfall amounts remaining light.
Strong high pressure (1050mb as it enters the U.S. on Saturday)
will push south across the region in the wake of the front, ushering
in a markedly cooler air mass for Sunday into early Monday.
Thereafter, the guidance diverges quite a bit with the timing of
the next system on tap for early to mid next week.
While models are in good agreement that a Gulf low will develop and track through the region, the GFS and ECMWF are about 24 hours different with their timing. For now, will blend the two solutions in terms of PoPs for next week, with modest rain chances for Monday night through Tuesday.
AVIATION...[Through 06Z Thursday]
Increasing low level moisture from the Atlantic will bring low clouds to most sites during rest of the pre-dawn hours with MVFR ceilings likely at TLH/ECP/VLD with marginal VFR/MVFR ceilings through the morning into the aftn.
Winds should remain above 5 mph precluding fog.
However, periodic light rain expected thru forecast period, especially VLD/TLH/ABY and may be accompanied by MVFR CIGS.
Northeast or easterly flow along the base of surface high pressure
will be moderately strong for the next couple of days.
Expect solid cautionary winds and possibly seas through Thursday night or Friday.
Winds may peak at Advisory levels on Thursday, though it would likely be a low-end advisory.
By late Friday, the winds should fall below headline levels as the ridge weakens and moves east in advance of an approaching cold front.
On Sunday, in the wake of the front, winds will increase once again to headline levels through the first part of next week.
Moisture levels will begin to increase today and remain elevated
through at least Saturday.
The next cold front on Sunday will bring drier air back to the region but red flag humidities are not expected.
Most area rivers have crested below action stage from a slight bump due to Monday`s rain.
A downward or steady trend is expected for the next several days as little to no rainfall is anticipated.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 67 56 70 63 78 / 30 20 10 10 20
Panama City 66 56 71 64 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
Dothan 63 49 65 58 77 / 20 20 20 10 10
Albany 62 50 65 58 75 / 30 20 20 10 10
Valdosta 67 55 69 61 76 / 40 20 20 10 20
Cross City 73 61 76 64 80 / 40 20 10 10 20
Apalachicola 68 59 71 65 75 / 30 20 10 10 10