NEAR TERM [Today]...
The cold front that brought the first significant rainfall to the region in nearly a month has moved well to our south and east. A few post-frontal showers will continue to move across the southeast corner of the Big Bend early this morning.
Much drier air will be filtering in on northerly winds with mostly sunny skies at all locations by this afternoon.
The axis of the mid/upper level trough will be west of the tri-state region for most of the day so the coldest air won`t arrive until overnight and Sunday.
Look for max temps to be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Very little change to the current fcst as cooler and drier air will build in behind the Cold front for tonight through Monday.
Despite plenty of sunshine, high temps are expected to be limited to the lower to middle 70s each day, with overnight lows dipping into the
lower to middle 40s away from the coast each night.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
A deep sfc ridge will move over the NE CONUS on Monday with a 500
mb ridge axis just east of our CWA.
This pattern will keep PoPs near zero for a majority of the period.
Below climo temps to start the period which will begin to warm-up as a frontal system approaches from the west on Thursday. Timing and strength of the front will be critical in determining precise rain chances for the end of the forecast period. For now going just under 30% PoP for Thursday afternoon.
AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday].
Drier air on northerly winds will gradually scour out the few lingering showers and occasional MVFR cigs this morning.
After that, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals.
Winds will be from the northwest around 10 knots and gusty at times.
Winds and seas will initially decrease to light to moderate levels out of the Northwest and North behind the Cold front today, before
increasing to strong cautionary levels tonight into Sunday.
Thereafter, as a very strong ridge of high pressure builds in over the Northeast, an extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions is likely to develop, as the pressure pattern over the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to support strong easterly surges.
Minimum relative humidity values will briefly drop below critical levels across interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon.
However, wind and ERC values are not expected to reach red flag criteria.
It will be just as dry across our Alabama and Georgia zones but red flag conditions are not expected to be met.
A dry airmass will remain in place on Sunday, but red flag conditions are not expected.
Storm total rainfall amounts were very well forecast across the region with most areas receiving between 0.75" and 1 inch of rainfall.
These totals will not cause any concerns on our area rivers and streams.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 79 45 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 78 51 72 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 77 44 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 78 45 71 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 77 47 74 44 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 78 46 75 46 77 / 20 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 79 51 72 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
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