NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
It was another very complex forecast this evening, with models
beginning to come into better agreement with respect to the finer
As of 02z, there were scattered showers north and west of a line from Panama City to Tifton associated with very weak, broad isentropic ascent.
The most recent hi-res model runs are beginning to pick up on what the larger scale guidance has been hinting at all day.
A more focused and intense area of isentropic ascent is forecast along the immediate Gulf coast and adjacent waters from LA to the FL panhandle.
Over the past couple of hours satellite data has shown this area filling in with cloudiness rather quickly, and more recently a focused band of showers has begun to develop.
Depending on how intense this rain becomes (primarily west of us and offshore) will determine whether the environment will be favorable for the development of mesoscale low pressure.
Should this happen, it could make the forecast rather tricky as to
the positioning of the heaviest more focused rain later in the period (i.e. tomorrow morning) as a cold front approaches.
There is also the potential for some rather heavy rainfall with
precipitable water values between 2-3 standard deviations above
The bulk of this heavy rain will likely remain offshore and west of us, but there is a chance that parts of our Panhandle counties could be affected closer to the morning.
In summation, a ribbon of focused light to moderate showers will
become more widespread and heavier through the night, possibly
developing an area of mesoscale low pressure (most likely over the
Gulf west of our region). This low pressure feature will slide
east along the Gulf coast and likely interact with a cold front
tomorrow morning and may cause areas of heavy downpours, though
individual storms will likely be fairly progressive.
At this time, it appears the heaviest rain will remain offshore.
With nearly saturated conditions widespread fog is expected
overnight. When it is not raining, the fog may become dense so try
to allow extra travel time for your morning commute.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Wednesday]...
The cold front will pass through our forecast area on Monday, with
any rain that develops along it exiting the region Monday evening.
Highs on Monday will be well above average (mid 70s to lower 80s-
depending on local cloud cover).
We expect Tuesday to be fair and cooler, with temperatures returning to near-average (lows in the 40s, and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s).
Major model differences arise for Wednesday, as the ECMWF has high PoPs across our area due to the interaction of a fast-moving short wave trough and a warm front approaching the Gulf Coast.
The GFS MOS is dry as it keeps this frontal zone well to our south.
Given the persistence of the current large scale pattern, the ECMWF solution makes sense. We will lean a little more toward its wetter
LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
Both the ECMWF and GFS forecast a rather flat 500 mb ridge over the
Southeast until Saturday, when a cold front will approach from the
Both models treat this frontal passage like the one forecast for tonight & Monday, as they weaken the vertical motion and QPF fields while the front moves through our area on Saturday.
Fair weather will accompany a cooler, drier airmass on Sunday.
High temperatures will be near average until Friday and Saturday, when they will climb above average (mid 70s to lower 80s).
Lows will be a little above average through Saturday (in the 50s).
Temperatures will return closer to average on Sunday behind the cold front.
AVIATION [Beginning 02Z Monday]...
IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys already occurring at all but DHN at 02z Mon.
HRRR and local WRF with low cigs and vsbys in fog and light rain
through around 14Z all sites so expect widespread dense fog.
Fog then low clouds will lift very slowly during morning.
Went with VFR beginning at 15Z DHN...16Z at ECP and ABY ...18Z at TLH and 20Z at VLD.
If the front moves through quickly however, VFR conditions will be possible earlier Wrn terminals than forecast and will need to be monitored.
A period of relatively low winds and seas will continue through
By late Monday winds will increase from the north as a cold front passes through our area and a strong high pressure system builds across the Southeast.
Advisory conditions will be possible Monday night and/or Tuesday morning.
No fire weather concerns through the period.
The expected rainfall amounts with the cold front passing through our region tonight and Monday are not likely to have a significant impact on local rivers.
Though some of the latest guidance suggests there may be some heavy rainfall closer to the Panhandle coast late tonight into the morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 69 81 49 72 49 / 50 70 10 0 10
Panama City 71 79 52 69 53 / 60 70 10 0 20
Dothan 69 80 45 67 46 / 60 40 0 0 10
Albany 68 81 46 67 45 / 50 40 0 0 10
Valdosta 67 80 48 69 47 / 50 60 10 0 10
Cross City 66 79 54 73 51 / 20 60 30 0 20
Apalachicola 70 77 53 69 55 / 50 70 20 10 20
FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM EST (Midnight CST) to 9 AM EST
(8 AM CST) Monday for all of north Florida.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for southwest
and south central Georgia.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Monday
for southeast Alabama.