NEAR TERM [Today]...
Weak isentropic ascent continues across the 310-315K surface
resulting in extensive cloud cover over the region.
The combination of this weak ascent and some forcing from an
approaching upper level disturbance is also resulting in areas of
light rain falling from this cloud deck around 7kft.
Even though the low levels of the atmosphere have moistened considerably from just 12 hours ago, enough drier air is still present that it is likely having some evaporative effect on the falling
Moreover, with the overall magnitude of the lift being weak, measured rainfall amounts today, even in areas where the lift is more focused, will be quite low.
Based on the latest WRF runs locally and radar trends, have updated pops to favor measurable rainfall more in the southeastern half of the forecast area with lower chance values further to the northwest.
Even though we still expect precipitation over nearly all of the region today, the measurable amounts should stay confined to areas along and southeast of a line from Panama City to Valdosta.
Areas north of this line, the predominant weather mentioned is drizzle.
The extensive cloud cover will also have a significant effect on
temperatures keeping max temps in the lower to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM [7 PM This Evening Through Sunday]...
Still looks like a fairly complex and somewhat unsettled fcst for this upcoming weekend, with some lingering rain possible this evening with the very fast moving shortwave and isentropic lift.
Weak Sfc ridging should briefly take control late tonight and much
of Saturday (with the best chances for rain confined to the SE FL
Big Bend and the northern Gulf), but return flow moisture will be
quickly back on the increase over the remainder of the weekend.
Did trim back Sunday`s PoPs just a bit based on the locally generated
Confidence Grids, but rain chances ranging from 40-60 percent from
SE to NW still look like a good bet.
Temps are also expected to moderate slightly as well to above climo levels, though did trim back highs a couple of degrees on Sunday, as the numerical guidance appears a bit too high given the cloud cover and elevated rain chances.
LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The GFS and ECMWF solutions were fairly similar, bringing a cold
front through our forecast area Sunday night and Monday, followed by
a cool & dry airmass.
The vertical motion field from the GFS show a weakening trend as the front traverses our area, and the best height falls will be well to our north.
So while our PoP will be high (50-70% range), the threat of severe storms appears low due to poor CAPE, marginal winds speeds aloft, and lackluster Q-G forcing.
The remainder of the period will be fair weather. Highs will be near
average (upper 60s north to lower to mid 70s south). Lows will be in
AVIATION [Through 12z Saturday]...
Moisture will be on the increase through the period in association with a weak upper level disturbance.
Cigs will be slow to lower to MVFR levels today, but should get there by afternoon.
The best chance of rain is expected to be at KECP and KTLH with lower chances further to the north.
Although the small craft advisory has come to an end, the pressure
pattern is expected to remain just tight enough to support cautionary conditions this morning, and still moderate winds and seas into early next week.
A return to advisory level conditions will certainly be possible by mid week as yet another strong ridge of high pressure builds in to our north.
There are no significant fire weather concerns over the next few days with relative humidity values remaining well above critical levels, although dispersion values will be unusually low during the day today with low mixing heights.
Although a fairly unsettled pattern is expected during the next several days, Storm total rainfall should average just about one inch or so through early next week. This should not be of cause for any concerns on our area rivers and streams.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 65 57 75 64 78 / 70 30 20 20 50
Panama City 67 61 74 68 76 / 50 20 20 20 50
Dothan 62 53 74 62 77 / 20 10 10 20 60
Albany 62 52 74 60 78 / 20 20 10 20 50
Valdosta 65 54 75 60 78 / 80 30 20 20 50
Cross City 69 59 77 64 80 /100 40 30 30 40
Apalachicola 69 61 72 70 75 / 90 40 20 20 50