NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
743 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2013
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
High pressure centered north of the area will allow for a mostly clear night with seasonable low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s for most inland areas and low to mid 50s along the coast.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Nearly zonal flow will remain in place along the Gulf Coast through Monday night with weak surface high pressure centered north of the area. Temps will remain mild through this period and be a couple of degrees above normal Monday afternoon. A few spots in the FL Big Bend could reach 80. Monday night and Tuesday temps will be near normal.
Big changes will then ensue as an upper level trough rapidly deepens into the Southeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will help drive the first arctic front of the season across the forecast area and well down the peninsula. Some decent DPVA will lag the front and there could be a few sprinkles of light rain Tuesday evening.
Temps will eventually tumble into the mid to upper 30s across northwestern portions of the forecast area north of a DHN-ABY line. It still appears that any lingering post-frontal moisture will be scoured out before it gets cold enough for anything but liquid precipitation in our forecast area. The same cannot be said for the northern half of GA, which could see a very rare November snowfall.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
Wednesday will be a brisk day with max temps some 15-20 degrees
Only coastal portions of the FL Big Bend can be expected to crack 60 with areas north of the FL border peaking in the lower to mid 50s.
This will set up the coldest night of the season thus far on Wednesday night.
Forecast temps have not changed much and we are still calling for a light cold advection freeze for areas north of a line from Crestview to Dothan to Albany.
As mentioned in previous discussions, 5-10 kt winds will preclude any frost formation.
Highs on Thursday will be about 5 degrees higher than Wednesday, which will still be 10-15 degrees below normal.
Temperatures will then steadily moderate and be back to normal by
the weekend, if not a few degrees above normal on Sunday.
The upper level flow will remain progressive with the next piece of
energy approaching late in the week. Low level moisture will also
gradually increase and slight chance PoPs will return to the forecast during the weekend.
Scattered showers are forecast for the weekend and a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out on Sunday with dew points climbing back into the 60s.
Very easy and straight forward Taf package through the next 24 hrs, with light NE winds and nearly unlimited VFR conditions expected at all of the terminals.
Only patches of cirrus around 25 kft are expected from time to time.
Light to moderate northeast winds will continue through Monday
A strong cold front will then sweep across the waters from late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Winds will quickly increase to small craft advisory levels behind this front and remain elevated through Wednesday night.
Winds will settle back to cautionary levels for Thursday and Thursday night before dropping below headline criteria entirely on Friday.
Red Flag conditions are not expected until possibly Wednesday or
Thursday when a much drier airmass and breezy conditions arrive
behind a strong cold front.
With minimal rain chances in the forecast, there will be no hydrologic concerns over the next several days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 47 79 51 78 45 / 0 0 10 0 10
Panama City 55 76 55 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 49 75 47 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 48 75 47 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 20
Valdosta 48 76 51 75 44 / 0 0 10 10 20
Cross City 50 80 55 78 49 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 54 75 56 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 10