Near Term [Through Today]...
This morning`s 12Z sounding from Tallahassee shows practically no
change to the temperature profile from the surface up to 800mb.
With the large scale pattern relatively unchanged as well, we are
essentially going with a persistence forecast for today.
The previous forecast covers this fairly well, so only some minor
tweaks were made. It should be another dry and mostly sunny day
with highs near 90 degrees.
Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The upper ridge axis will get shunted east of the forecast area tonight and Friday with zonal flow across the Southeast by Saturday.
The surface ridge will remain in place through the period pumping
increasingly humid air into the region.
The result will be a gradual decrease in diurnal temp ranges with slightly lower daytime temps and min temps generally in the mid 60s.
We continue to advertise slight chance PoPs across our far western zones for Friday afternoon.
PoPs will increase 30-40 across our northern and western zones Friday night and Saturday with slight chance PoPs for most of the remainder of the forecast area.
The scattered nature of the convection should preclude any flooding concerns during this period.
Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Much of the extended forecast period should be dominated by slow
changes in mid-upper level heights and relatively weak winds in
those layers, with split flow over the eastern CONUS.
Although deep layer forcing will be weak for most of the period, an increase in low-level moisture is sufficient for the GFS to produce diurnal QPF each day of the forecast prior to the arrival of a front on Tuesday.
This suggests that some isolated-scattered showers and storms could develop due to a combination of sea breezes and weak shortwaves.
With some inconsistencies in the models, we closely followed WPC
PoPs which show a diurnal cycle - generally dry at night with some
20-30% chances of showers and storms during the day.
Temperatures should be near or slightly above normal.
Fog and low ceilings should be expected on and off this morning at ECP and TLH, while it may be tough to get MVFR restrictions elsewhere due to the high cloud cover.
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals an hour or so after sunrise.
High pressure will continue to ridge from the Atlantic westward along the Gulf Coast.
This will keep winds primarily out of the southeast.
Wind speeds could briefly approach cautionary levels on Friday, but will remain below headline criteria otherwise.
Outside of some marginally high dispersions, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected through the weekend.
With dry conditions expected through the end of the work week and
just scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, rivers
that are still in flood will continue to recede.
Points on slower-responding rivers such as the Suwannee will likely stay in flood through through some stretches into the middle to end of next week.
The latest river forecast information can be found at:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 90 64 88 64 86 / 0 0 10 10 20
Panama City 81 69 81 69 83 / 0 0 10 20 20
Dothan 86 65 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 30 30
Albany 88 65 89 66 86 / 0 0 10 20 30
Valdosta 94 63 91 64 87 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 88 63 89 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 20
Apalachicola 83 68 81 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 10