NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The anomalous upper level low continues to spin over the eastern
third of the country, centered on the Alabama/Mississippi line. This
low is only making gradual eastward progress and will continue to
affect our local weather through the early part of the week.
As of 18z, a rather large area of surface low pressure with several
embedded circulations was centered over Alabama and Georgia.
Extending from this low was a cold front off of the east coast of
Florida, and another entering the Florida Panhandle and southeast
Alabama. Associated with this front is a thin line of light showers
from the Tri-State intersection, southwest through Panama City.
Expect the shower activity to increase slightly and spread further
into Georgia later this afternoon.
The front, and associated rain/clouds will exit the region overnight with dry air quickly pushing in behind. This will allow temperatures to once again fall into the middle 40s region wide.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
At the start of the short term period, the cold upper low will be
centered across Central Alabama and only slowly move northeast
into the Carolinas by Tuesday night. This will result in a continued period of below normal temperatures.
Rain chances will remain in the forecast for Monday as much of the
guidance, including our local 12z WRF, show plenty of lift available for a few scattered showers, much like is occurring this afternoon. The chance will be greatest further to the north, nearer the core of the upper low.
By Tuesday, as the upper low does move further away from the area,
conditions will improve with less cloud cover and lower rain chances. Temperatures will still be cool, but only a couple of degrees below climo.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Saturday]…
The long term period looks to be mainly tranquil as the persistent
upper low finally ejects from the Southeast and the pattern temporarily shifts to ridging across the Deep South.
Dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday.
A disturbance will move across the Plains and into the Western Gulf by Friday evening increasing rain chances for our region by Saturday.
An amplifying northern stream disturbance will move into the Ohio
Valley late in the period, further enhancing rain chances by Sunday.
Temperatures throughout the period will warm back to climatology
and perhaps even a couple of degrees above normal by Friday.
It looks like this may have been the last gasp of a very cool Spring.
AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF.
Gusty winds approaching 30 knots will be possible all afternoon.
Thereafter, winds will subside through tomorrow.
A thin band of showers is passing through the region, but is very quickly moving east and should not result in any category restrictions.
Winds will increase to advisory levels behind a weak frontal boundary moving through the marine area this afternoon.
These winds will diminish late tonight as the pressure gradient weakens across the marine area.
As an upper level disturbance moves away from the waters on Tuesday, more typical tranquil conditions will return by mid week.
Although the upcoming week will prove to be drier than last, relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds.
Thus, Red Flag conditions are not anticipated this week.
No significant rainfall is expected throughout the next several days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 46 72 53 78 54 / 20 40 40 10 10
Panama City 53 71 57 76 58 / 10 40 20 10 10
Dothan 44 69 52 77 53 / 10 50 30 10 10
Albany 45 69 52 77 53 / 30 50 40 10 10
Valdosta 45 72 53 77 52 / 30 40 40 10 10
Cross City 48 75 52 78 54 / 20 30 40 10 10
Apalachicola 51 71 57 75 56 / 10 30 30 10 10
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.