Dothan Area Weather Forecast May 3

Near Term [Through Today]...

A drier airmass will be moving into the area today as surface high
pressure builds into the region.

The only remaining chance of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder is expected to be mainly through mid-morning across the southeast big bend with the highest chances around Dixie county.

Skies will clear from west to east through the day with afternoon high temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to near 80.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Tonight...
the mid/upper trough and assocd shortwave will finally move Ewd to Ern seaboard by sundown then off into the Atlc overnight sweeping any lingering moisture offshore.

In response...local pattern deamplifies as upstream ridge with rising heights and subsidence begins to overspread NE Gulf.

At surface...front now into Srn FL with high pressure building Ewd across the Ern Gulf.

All this reflected in model soundings which show NLY flow at lower
levels and NWLY flow above with PWATS dropping to around 0.6 inches.

No POPs.

Absent clouds and rain and with decent radiational cooling...min inland temps drop to 52 to 55 degrees.

Sunday through Monday...
Deep layer high pressure will dominate the local area with relatively flat upper ridge building over SE states into the work week.

By Sunday, ridging at the surface will build NEWD from Gulf of Mex and become centered on Monday just S of the FL Panhandle pushing dry air Newd.

With large scale subsidence leading to an increasingly dry atmosphere plus full sunshine...under NW low level flow expect temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s on Sunday and...under Wly flow rise to 87 to 90 degrees on Monday.

Lows Sunday night in the upper 50s.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the region through the long term period.

The surface ridge axis won`t move far enough east of the region until Thursday to allow enough onshore flow for any sea breeze shower activity.

Thus, the long term forecast is dry with temperatures warming a few degrees above climatology by the end of the period.

Expect high temperatures to approach or exceed 90 on Monday and stay warm through the week.

Lows will be nearer to climatological norms, in the upper 50s to
near 60.

Aviation...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at the TAF sites with NW winds around 10 knots developing in the afternoon.

Marine...

Offshore winds around 10 knots will gradually diminish and become
light and variable by Monday as high pressure builds over the marine area.

These tranquil conditions will continue through much of next week.

Fire Weather...

Although a drier airmass will be in place this weekend, the very moist soil conditions will prevent any fire weather concerns with the exception of high dispersions this afternoon.

Hydrology...

Minor to moderate flooding continues along several rivers, and major
flooding is forecast at Bruce.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next 7 days, which should finally allow some receding to occur.

For more specific information on the river points, go to:
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 79 54 87 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 78 61 83 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 79 56 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 79 54 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 78 53 87 57 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 77 52 85 57 88 / 50 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 77 58 82 60 81 / 10 0 0 0 0

TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.


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