Near Term [Through Today]...
Yesterday behaved like a classic summertime pulse severe convection day.
Low and mid-level lapse rates were steep in excess of 7C/km, resulting in some of the storms becoming severe with reports of
large hail and some marginally severe winds.
The upper level ridge axis that was centered just west of the area yesterday is expected to move slightly eastward today.
This should allow for slightly less intensity of showers and thunderstorms compared to yesterday.
Mid-level lapse rates are not forecast to be as steep with the ridge
axis closer, and the ensemble of CAM guidance also points to less of
a chance of severe weather today.
Having said that, we still do expect some scattered convection, and storm motions are expected to be slow and erratic once again, so the areas that do get convection could pick up some locally heavy rain.
Another warm day is expected with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s away from the beaches.
Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The large scale period commences highly amplified with ridging over Wrn and Ern states and positively tilted trough from Great Lakes Swwd thru SW TX.
Ern H5 ridge has shifted EWD to be centered across E/Cntrl MS/AL.
At surface...high well of Carolina Coast with ridge WSW across Nrn Gulf region.
Locally, this translates to onshore flow lower levels then NW flow above leading to dew points from mid 60s inland to around 70 degrees at the coast.
Similar to Sunday night, left over outflow boundaries from Monday`s convection clashing with late sea breeze will generate scattered evening storms mainly across GA counties but, with ridge approaching, less coverage and intensity than 24 hrs ago.
Cannot discount a few strong pulse storms wherever boundaries intersect.
Will go with 0-40% SW-NE evening POP gradient.
Lingering moisture and near calm winds should favor some patchy fog.
developing cutoff upper low over Srn Plains will amplify downstream H5 ridge and nudge it a little further EWD to be centered over Ern AL/GA line around sunrise.
At surface, Atlc ridge strengthens Wwd but also slips SWD.
This should result in less storm coverage and, given light steering flow, relegated to seabreeze.
With mid level drying and a pocket of cold air aloft, strong to isold severe storms cant be discounted.
0-30% SW-NE mainly afternoon POP gradient.
the H5 ridge begins to breakdown partly in response to weak shortwave moving Ewd, and, weak troughiness develops over SE
region with quasi-stnry low remaining over TX.
Local flow begins to veer to SSW with PWATs increasing to around 1.4 inches.
Will go with 30-40% W-E POP gradient.
High temperatures throughout the short term period will continue to
hover around climatology.
Expect inland highs Tues and Wed around 90 degrees, mid 80s at coast.
Inland lows each night 65 to 69 degrees.
Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Ridging across the Southeast will continue to breakdown on Thursday
resulting in an increase in storm coverage during the afternoon hours.
An upper low across the far western Gulf will shift eastward throughout the latter part of the week before weakening.
The combination of this feature nearing the region and trough sliding off the Eastern CONUS by Friday may result in a further increase in
storm chances heading into the weekend.
Temperatures throughout the long term period will continue to be 2 to 4 degree above climatology, particularly early in the period when rain chances will be less.
Given the scattered convection that occurred on Sunday and a moist airmass remaining in place, some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible around sunrise across the area with low ceilings and/or patches of fog.
VFR conditions will quickly return by mid-morning with scattered convection expected during the afternoon.
High pressure near or over the marine area will keep winds and
seas low through the period.
The only increase will be near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.
Relative humidity values are expected to stay above critical thresholds for the next several days with no red flag conditions expected.
While scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected each
day this week, widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated.
As a result, expect little or no impact to area rivers which continue
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 93 68 90 68 90 / 50 20 20 10 30
Panama City 88 73 85 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 30
Dothan 91 70 90 70 90 / 50 20 10 10 30
Albany 92 69 91 69 91 / 50 30 30 10 40
Valdosta 93 68 90 67 91 / 50 40 30 30 40
Cross City 92 68 90 67 90 / 40 30 20 20 40
Apalachicola 88 70 83 70 84 / 20 10 10 10 30