NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
High pressure will remain entrenched over and east of the region,
with weak southerly flow and dry conditions through the period.
The CU field present over north Florida and southeast Alabama will
dissipate early this evening, with only a scattered cirrus layer
remaining after sunset.
Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through the early evening, and then cool off into the mid 50s to mid 60s late tonight. Based on the latest guidance and dew point trends, the coolest regions should be in the eastern part of the CWA, specifically inland north Florida and south central Georgia.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...
A very weak trough in the middle and upper levels will pass quietly over a rather dry airmass, combine with surface high pressure, and result in seasonable temperatures without any rain over land areas through Tuesday.
A few light showers may be possible across our Gulf waters in easterly convergent flow.
LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...
A large area of high pressure to our northeast should persist
through the entire period, leading to general easterly flow across
the CWA and lower than normal chances of precipitation.
The lowest precip chances should be on Wednesday, with chances of thunderstorms slightly increasing later in the period, especially in the eastern regions of our CWA.
From Thursday through Sunday, the Atlantic sea breeze could provide enough lift for scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening.
Elsewhere, seasonable temperatures and drier than normal conditions will occur.
AVIATION [Beginning 19Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with just a scattered
cumulus field before sunset this evening, and a scattered cirrus
layer throughout the period.
Winds will remain slightly elevated at ECP this afternoon and early evening due to the sea breeze, with gusts up to 15 kt possible until sunset.
Calm to light winds will occur at all other terminals throughout the period.
Persistent easterly flow will yield nocturnal surges expected to reach cautionary levels each night through early this week.
By mid week, brief periods of advisory conditions will also be possible
within the nocturnal surges.
Dry conditions are expected to continue through much of this week.
Although relative humidity values will approach critical levels on
Monday afternoon in North Florida, the other necessary criteria will
not be met.
As a result, red flag conditions are not anticipated through this week.
Dry conditions will continue through next week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 59 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 85 67 86 69 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 91 65 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 90 60 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 91 57 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 91 58 93 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 84 64 81 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
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