Near Term [Through Today]...
IR satellite loops overnight, and upstream observations, indicate that a layer of fairly dense cirrus is arriving in our forecast area from the west.
Forecast soundings and HRRR forecast cloud ceilings suggest that this cirrus will persist for much of the day.
Some filtered sunshine is still expected at a minimum, so it should be
another very warm day.
However, the added cloud cover will likely make it a little cooler than yesterday.
Our local hi-res (CAM) model ensemble seemed to produce a reasonable maximum temperature forecast based on the expected cloud cover, so we weighted expectations toward that and made sure the forecast today was lower than observed highs yesterday.
Some recent 4km WRF runs - both from our office and NCEP - have indicated a few showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze this afternoon, or in parts of southeast Alabama where surface dewpoints will be a little higher.
This is not indicated by all WRFs, and global models remain dry.
Given this, the chance of rain today should not be too high, but we inserted a mention of "isolated showers and thunderstorms" with a 10% PoP along the Panhandle sea breeze and in southeast Alabama.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Very interesting forecast will be coming up for the remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend, as the current hot and dry pattern seemed
destined not to be able to last for much longer.
If fact, the GFS and ECMWF have come into fairly good agreement that the upper level ridging which had been protecting our skies with fair and hot weather, will gradually be sharpening up into a trof along the FL east coast.
This should give us a gradual increase in cloud cover and rain chances on Sunday through Monday (especially across eastern
portions of the CWA) with high temps dropping back into the lower to
a few middle 90s.
Additionally, with the steepening trof, still adequate daytime heating, and fairly steep mid level lapse rates, there appears to be some threat for a few strong to severe storms on Sunday and Sunday night, again with the best chances and highest PoPs furthest to the east.
As of this package, did insert Isolated Severe storms from 00 to 06 UTC Sunday night along the easternmost corridor of the CWA, which also coincides with PoPs of 60 percent (or the likely category).
Further to the west, with Pops gradually decreasing from 50 to 30 percent, still carried strong storm wording with possible gusty winds.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...
The GFS & ECMWF forecast a rather narrow, 500 mb long wave ridge
over the Southeast through Tuesday night, though the GFS ridge axis
is farther west than the ECMWF.
Both models forecast a breakdown of this ridge beginning Wednesday, though they continue to differ on just how this occurs.
Despite these differences, both solutions bring a "backdoor" surface cold front into our forecast area later in the workweek, with the GFS being faster and having the cold front actually pass south of our region, while the ECMWF stalls the front just to our north.
The mean of these solutions has gradual ramp-up in PoPs, from 20% or less through Wednesday, then 30-40% afterward.
The highest PoP will be during the afternoon & early evening hours,
when CAPE is highest.
Temperatures will be near average, with highs around 90 and lows in the 60s.
At ECP, TLH, and VLD, MVFR visibilities with haze or light fog was reported around TAF issuance time.
Therefore, despite increasing cirrus cloud cover aloft some MVFR VIS in fog is possible at those three terminals through around 12-13Z.
At VLD, some IFR VIS cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with a high ceiling around 20-25kft.
Generally light winds and low seas should prevail across the waters
during much if not all of the forecast period, with an onshore
component to the winds at most times.
Low-level moisture should continue to increase through the forecast
period, with RH staying above critical thresholds.
Therefore, no red flag conditions are expected.
All of our rivers are remaining below flood stage, and should continue a gradual decline.
The one possible exception could be a brief 0.50" to 0.75" that may fall along the Suwannee and Withlacoochee River basins on Sunday through Monday, but even these amounts would likely have little to no impact on area stages.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 66 92 67 91 / 10 10 30 40 30
Panama City 86 72 86 71 85 / 10 0 10 20 10
Dothan 91 68 94 69 92 / 10 10 20 30 30
Albany 92 68 91 69 92 / 10 10 40 40 40
Valdosta 96 67 93 67 91 / 10 10 50 60 40
Cross City 92 68 92 66 91 / 10 10 30 60 30
Apalachicola 90 71 88 70 86 / 10 0 10 20 10