NEAR TERM [Today]...
Re-enforcing surface high pressure and a very dry airmass will spill
into the region behind a cold front this morning.
Even though temperatures will be slightly cooler than what we`ve experienced the past few days, they will still be near seasonal levels.
Expect Max temps around 90 inland areas and mid 80s along the coast.
Northerly winds will be breezy at times this afternoon.
SHORT TERM [Tonight thru Sunday]...
The large scale longwave Omega like pattern remains highly amplified with full latitude trough axis along West coast and extreme Wrn Atlc and a ridge anchored over Cntrl Conus.
This leave local region between ridge and Srn periphery of trough yielding dry NW steering flow. Assocd shortwave over Ern OH Valley this morning exits into ATLC by eve.
At the surface, mainly dry cold front will have crossed local area with high pressure over mid-South building SWD in its wake. This translates locally to a cool, dry Cp airmass with NLY flow and subsidence overspreading region.
With local area between departing front and ridge building SWD, gradients tighten for local breezes especially over waters.
Expect inland Lows tonight low to mid 50s (avg min for TAE is 64 degrees). Airmass too dry for fog.
RECORD MIN TEMPS for May 25th
Tallahassee AP 48 Valdosta 53
Marianna 53 Headland AL 52
Apalachicola 56 Cross City 54
Tifton 52 Moultrie 52
During the rest of the period, the upper air pattern will persist but with local area increasingly on back side of lifting Ern trough.
So expect a `chamber of commerce` type weekend with warm days and noticeably cool nights as high pressure continues to build NE of region.
Inland dew points drop to around 40 degrees by Sat aftn and airmass should remain to dry for fog. Model time height profiles show H85 to H3 RH around 10%.
As front departs and high shifts EWD, local gradients will slacken.
Highs will be in the mid 80s on Sat rising to the mid to upper 80s on Sun. Mins Sat night again low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The overall pattern is expected to remain rather stagnant through
much of next week, with the troughs in place along the coasts and
the ridge over the center of the country.
This will keep the weather generally dry with temperatures close to seasonal norms. ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the pattern, which may lead to a few more showers over the Georgia zones by mid to late next week.
AVIATION...[through 06 UTC Saturday]...
VFR conditions with mainly high level cloudiness through the TAF
Winds will be from the northwest to north 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots later this morning and afternoon.
Offshore winds will increase to near advisory levels tonight in the
wake of a cold front.
Will go with nearshore/offshore split and insert exercise caution headlines in both zones.
Winds and seas will diminish by late Saturday, as high pressure builds over the waters, and remain minimal through early next week.
Very dry air will filter into the Tri-State region over the next few days.
Critically low relative humidities will be reached over interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend this afternoon.
This will combine with other critical fire weather parameters resulting in red flag conditions.
It will be just as dry over our Alabama and Georgia zones but red flag criteria will not be met.
The watch that was in effect for southeast Alabama today has been dropped.
On Saturday we expect long durations of critically low relative humidity combined with ERC`s at or above 37 over Leon and Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend as well as our four westernmost panhandle counties. A fire weather watch has been issued for these areas. Dispersion will be above 75 over all of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon. High dispersions are possible again for a portion of our Florida zones again on Saturday.
No hydrologic concerns into next week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 54 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 89 64 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 88 55 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 86 52 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 87 54 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 91 56 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 88 65 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7
PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Leon-South Walton-Washington.
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