Near Term [Through Today]...
Seemingly permanent upper low over the central portion of the
country has finally opened up and is lifting out to the northeast
Final pieces of energy are moving through the base of the trough today, and triggering the final round of light to moderate rainfall across the forecast area.
The most widespread rain area is ending from west to east late this morning.
However, as the final piece of energy moves across this afternoon, another round of scattered showers will be possible.
Have adjusted the PoPs for ongoing radar trends and expected afternoon activity.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain cool for most areas where
cloud cover will hold on through the afternoon.
Clearing skies across SE Alabama and the western Panhandle should allow those areas to reach the 70s this afternoon.
Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Tonight...the large scale mid/upper period begins highly amplified with ridging over Wrn states and extreme Wrn Atlc and a full latitude positively tilted trough in between with axis from Great Lakes Swwd thru TX.
At surface...low in Gulf of Mex south of Apalachicola with quasi-stnry front Newd across N/Cntrl FL and into Wrn Atlc.
Assocd moisture and overrunning with front plus SW steering flow from approaching upper trough will yield rain across SE third of CWFA.
Will go with sharp 0-80% NW-SE POP gradient.
Lows from near 50 SE AL to mid 50s SE Big Bend.
With widespread saturated grounds...patchy light fog is expected.
Saturday...The trough amplifies and assocd shortwave move EWD across the Southeast, overrunning comes to an end as a broad surface ridge begins to build Ewd from Cntrl Gulf.
This will push front and the bulk of the moisture south and eastward out of the region with noticeably drier air arriving from the northwest.
0-30% NW-SE mainly morning POP gradient.
Expect clearing skies by afternoon from NW-SE with temperatures warming back to the lower 80s NW to upper 70s SE.
Saturday Night and Sunday...As trough axis moves E of CWFA...local
Surface ridge build in over CWFA. with dry deep layer N/NW steering flow overspreading CWFA.
Clear skies with lows in the low to mid 50s.
Highs in mid 80s W to low 80s E.
Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The long term period will be dominated by a large high pressure area across the region at the surface.
Mid level ridging will also build in by the middle of the week.
As a result, expect dry conditions through the long term period with temperatures warming above climatology by Monday.
In fact, the potential exists for some lower 90s across the interior areas by the middle of the week.
MVFR ceilings are expected to spread across the southern portions of the area as another round of rain continues to move in from the Gulf.
Farther to the north around DHN and ABY, ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain at VFR, although light rain will be in the area.
Rain may be occasionally moderate at ECP, TLH, and VLD during the day.
Winds will remain below headline criteria.
By Saturday evening, high pressure will build over the marine area and remain in place well into next week, resulting in an extended period of light offshore winds and low seas.
Another wet day is expected today before drier air moves in for the
Despite much lower RH values on Saturday, moist soil conditions will prevent any red flag concerns.
There are currently 18 river points in the forecast area either in
flood or forecast to be in flood over the next couple of days.
Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage, although a few others are in moderate flood stage.
Rainfall today will act to keep rivers elevated, but fortunately rainfall
rates do not look high enough to produce flash flooding.
The latest river forecast information can be found at:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 67 51 81 54 84 / 90 30 10 0 0
Panama City 68 57 78 62 80 / 60 10 10 0 0
Dothan 73 52 82 56 84 / 40 10 0 0 0
Albany 71 52 81 55 85 / 80 10 10 0 0
Valdosta 67 52 78 53 84 / 90 40 10 0 0
Cross City 70 57 78 53 84 / 90 70 30 0 0
Apalachicola 66 55 76 60 78 / 90 30 10 0 0