Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure will be situated right over the region today, leading to a dry, mostly sunny day in our forecast area.
Very few changes were made to the existing forecast, and we still
appear to be on track for highs around 70 with light winds.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
High pressure centered over the region tonight will move southeast down the Florida Peninsula by Sunday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through the Southern Appalachians.
Cloud cover will be on the increase on Sunday, but any rain chances
By Sunday night, high pressure builds back over the region at the surface and aloft.
Temperatures will continue the warming trend with highs on Sunday generally in the mid 70s and in the upper 70s on Monday.
Temperatures during the day will be noticeably cooler near the coast, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s each afternoon.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Weak ridging aloft will keep temperatures around normal to start the week, before clouds and rain chances steadily increase into the middle part of the week.
This will occur as a southern stream impulse ejects across the Gulf and into the area late Tuesday.
Depending on how much phasing occurs with the northern stream,
this system could bring a quick shot of showers and tstms or perhaps a lingering rain event Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Pattern could favor a few stronger storms as well, although greater potential for severe tstms should remain over the FL Peninsula.
Regardless of the details, models are consistent in another round of showers and thunderstorms in the middle of the week, followed by unseasonably cold air in the wake of yet another strong cold front Thursday and Friday.
Aviation...[Through 12Z Sunday]
Brief MVFR or IFR conditions are possible this morning at KABY and KVLD with some patchy fog.
Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are forecast to prevail.
After winds decrease this morning, expect tranquil conditions to
continue through at least Tuesday morning.
Winds will be on the increase Tuesday night ahead of the next storm system, with cautionary conditions possible by Wednesday evening.
While the airmass will be warmer and drier through the weekend,
humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels.
No fire weather concerns.
Rainfall from this week has resulted in elevated flows across several rivers, with a few observation points reaching action stage.
None of the forecast points are forecast to reach flood stage at this time.
The next storm system will move into the region on Tuesday evening, bringing the potential for an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall.
This could result in additional rises to near minor flood stage for a few locations, particularly across the Florida Panhandle and into the Western Florida Big Bend.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 71 45 75 51 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 68 51 71 55 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 71 50 73 53 76 / 0 0 10 10 10
Albany 71 47 75 51 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 70 44 74 51 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cross City 72 43 75 48 76 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 65 48 69 52 71 / 0 0 10 10 10