NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
911 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
There was very little change to the forecast for tonight, and the
previous shift`s reasoning still seems on track.
High cirrus continues to move into the forecast area - most concentrated in our Florida zones.
Therefore, we expect that radiational cooling will be most significantly impacted in the Florida zones where we are currently forecasting low 40s for low temperatures.
Further north, where high clouds should be more dispersed and transparent, the temperature forecast allows for some colder pockets of upper 30s.
While some frost is possible, it is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant any sort of advisory.
Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
An upper level ridge will be in place through this period as surface
high pressure builds east of the area.
This will be a dry pattern with no chance for rain and moderating temperatures.
The lower humidity will also allow for a rather large diurnal swing in
temperatures with chilly mornings and warm afternoons.
Lows Monday night will be in the lower to mid 40s, while Tuesday night will only dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Highs will be in the upper 70s on Monday and reach the lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.
Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The period will start out dry and warm with the upper level ridge axis just east of the area and a surface high off the Southeast U.S. coast ridging westward along the Gulf Coast.
Highs will be in the lower 80s for most areas on Wednesday and Thursday and mornings will be milder than earlier in the week.
The upper ridge will be shunted eastward from Friday onward as energy over the Great Plains tries to make eastward progress.
The associated frontal system will edge close enough to the region to tap into increasing Gulf moisture and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms each day from Friday through the weekend.
Rain chances will be highest to the northwest and taper off to the southeast.
Temperatures will remain above normal despite the increase in moisture.
VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the period with much lighter winds than were observed during the day on Sunday.
Only a deck of very high CI-CS (30-35kft) will pass through the region tonight, with the more dense clouds observed at the southern terminals of ECP and TLH.
High pressure to the west of the waters will move east of the area
on Monday and then remain off the Southeast U.S. coast for several
Offshore winds and seas have dropped below headline criteria this afternoon and this trend will continue tonight.
Winds will veer around to onshore by Monday afternoon and light generally south to southeast winds will be the rule.
A slight increase in winds speeds and seas is expected across the Florida Panhandle waters for Wednesday and Thursday.
Although relative humidities tomorrow will be quite low, and at time
below critical levels, fuel moisture and/or duration criteria will
not be met anywhere in the Tri-State region.
Dispersions will be lower than recent days as high pressure moves overhead, calming winds a bit.
Critical relative humidities are not anticipated Tuesday through the end of the week.
The Apalachicola at Blountstown has reached minor flood stage and
will continue to rise to 16.8 feet by Monday morning.
Minor flooding is also forecast to begin along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville Tuesday morning and at Bruce Thursday.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 40 78 41 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 49 73 52 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 40 77 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 39 77 45 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 39 80 43 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 40 78 41 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 47 71 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 0