NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
605 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Near Term [Through Today]...
The 09 UTC regional surface analysis continued to be largely
dominated by mesoscale features.
The wake low analyzed in South GA earlier tonight has weakened, and a new meso high (induced by a cold pool from the MCS to our west) has developed in the western FL Panhandle.
The strong, well-organized MCS at the beginning of our shift has weakened and now appears rather sloppy on satellite & radar imagery.
The storms that moved into our western zones have been mostly elevated, and this will likely continue until later this morning when (if) there is some heating.
The HRRR has been handling the simulated reflectivity well so far and we have followed it closely for this forecast update.
Most of our local WRFs appears to be too slow, so we have sped up the timing of the rain from our earlier forecast.
This means that most of the rain will end from west to east by or during this afternoon.
Because of this faster solution, the severe threat may be diminishing a bit, as the most of the storms may be east of our forecast area by the time the boundary layer destabilizes significantly.
Still, we can`t rule out an isolated severe storm given the strong winds and relatively steep lapse rates aloft.
Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threats.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Deep layer ridging and a very dry airmass will build into the region in the wake of the exiting upper trough and surface cold front.
Max temps will be near to above seasonal levels while min temps will be cooler, especially Sunday night with nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions setting up.
Max temps will be in the lower to mid 70s Sunday and upper 70s to near 80 on Monday.
Lows will be in the in the lower to mid 40s tonight and around 40
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Upper level ridging will stay in place over the southeastern CONUS through Wednesday.
Wednesday night, another shortwave trough over the four corners region will amplify the upper level pattern, developing a surface low over the southern Plains and an associated cold front.
As this system pushes eastward Thursday and Friday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east across our forecast area.
Numerous SHRA and TSRA will be moving east through the region today, mainly this morning.
Gusty winds and poor brief period of poor visibility are expected at all terminals.
The rain will end from west to east later this morning.
Skies will be clearing later this afternoon as the winds shift and become NW.
Winds and seas will increase from from west to east to advisory
levels from this evening to Sunday morning in the wake of an
exiting strong cold front.
Conditions will improve by Sunday afternoon with light winds and low seas for Monday through the middle of next week.
Wet conditions are expected today.
RH values may fall to locally critical levels Sunday afternoon.
However, at this time we don`t think that ERC/fuel moisture values and/or wind speeds will be sufficient for Red Flag warnings.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches were received Friday over Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle...with 1 to 2 inches elsewhere.
An additional 0.50 TO 1 inch rainfall amounts are expected across these areas today as a cold front pushes through.
Many area rivers remain in action stage and could possibly reach
minor flood stage.
However, the latest forecast from the RFC keeps everything below flood stage.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 80 46 74 38 79 / 80 10 0 0 0
Panama City 75 47 72 47 75 / 80 0 0 0 0
Dothan 76 43 71 41 78 / 80 0 0 0 0
Albany 76 43 72 40 79 / 80 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 77 44 72 40 78 / 80 10 0 0 0
Cross City 79 47 74 40 78 / 70 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 48 70 44 73 / 70 0 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
Sunday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday
for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.