NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
331 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The main trailing impulse will move into the Southeastern US this
evening and lead to cyclogenesis off the Florida East Coast.
As this occurs, moisture will be advected back into our region and weak forcing will lead to the development of showers, especially across South Central Georgia and into the Florida Big Bend. Rainfall
amounts will be light.
Late tonight as the upper disturbance intensifies and moves further east, clearing will begin across the western zones before sunrise with the rain likely ending in the eastern zones about sunrise.
Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The arrival of the cold air really won`t get going to after 12z, so the colder weather will not begin until Tuesday afternoon.
Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A potent shortwave rounding the base of a large east coast trough
will push any remaining showers out of our easternmost counties
around sunrise tomorrow.
A cool and dry airmass will move into the Southeast through the day, ushered in by gusty northwesterly winds along the leading edge of high pressure. Gusts 25 to 30 mph will be common on Tuesday.
The calm center of the ridge will slip into our northern counties
within a couple hours of sunrise Wednesday.
The subsequent light winds will allow temperatures to plummet during the latter half of the night, possibly falling to below freezing for southeast Alabama and most of our Georgia counties.
Thus, a freeze watch has been issued.
In the outlooked area there also exists the potential for patchy frost during the same time period, widespread frost is not anticipated due to the relatively dry conditions.
A frost advisory may be necessary further south of the watch, but the
forecast is a little too uncertain at this time as to just how far south the calm winds will spread, and just how moist the boundary layer will be.
The cold dome of high pressure will remain in place across the
Southeast on Wednesday, severely limiting afternoon mixing.
Even under sunny conditions we will have to struggle to reach the 60s
area wide, with some locations possibly remaining in the upper 50s.
Wednesday night will be warmer than Tuesday as winds veer easterly
and increase. Lows should bottom out in the upper 30s and lower
40s area wide.
Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
We`ll transition out of an unseasonably cool and dry pattern into a wet pattern with more seasonable temperatures through the extended range forecast.
A frontal system will enter the Tri-State region on Friday, and not completely clear out until sometime on Sunday when conditions will begin to dry out once again.
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
VFR conditions this afternoon will quickly change to MVFR ceilings this evening as low level moisture return increases from the east.
Expect VLD to be MVFR before sunset and TLH/ABY to follow around 02z.
Thereafter, conditions should further deteriorate at all sites, except DHN, to low MVFR levels with ceilings around 1500 ft.
A brief period of IFR ceilings are possible around sunrise at VLD.
Clearing will begin to arrive NW to SE across the area on Tuesday.
Gusty NW winds on Tuesday up to 20 knots are possible, especially at DHN/ABY in the afternoon.
On the leading edge of strong high pressure, winds will increase to at least cautionary levels tomorrow with occasional higher gusts.
Winds will briefly fall back to below headline levels on Wednesday, before increasing once again ahead of another frontal system late in the week.
A cold front will move through the region late tonight bringing in a
much cooler and drier airmass to the region on Tuesday.
Relative humidity values will approach critical levels Tuesday afternoon across the tri-state area.
It will also be breezy during the afternoon hours, but the winds should not be strong enough to meet criteria in Alabama or Georgia.
In Florida, the ERC values will not be high enough, thus will not need any headlines this cycle.
Dry conditions will continue into Wednesday, but with lighter winds,
criteria will not be met.
The airmass will moisten into Thursday putting an end to any fire weather concerns.
Most rivers across the region have crested and are slowly receding
with only a few points still above flood stage (Ochlockonee,
Aucilla and Withlacoochee).
The exception is the the Suwannee River, where stages continue to rise. However, the chance of flooding along the Suwannee is low.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 52 70 35 60 40 / 60 10 0 0 10
Panama City 52 68 41 60 48 / 40 10 0 0 10
Dothan 47 65 34 59 43 / 20 0 0 0 10
Albany 47 66 32 58 40 / 40 10 0 0 10
Valdosta 52 69 34 59 39 / 80 10 0 0 0
Cross City 57 72 37 62 37 / 90 10 0 0 10
Apalachicola 54 68 41 59 48 / 60 10 0 0 10
GA...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
AL...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.