NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
934 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The rainfall from today`s first in a series of fast moving low pressure systems certainly exited our region in hurry today, but with clear evidence of the cold front now to our south, new evidence of weak isentropic lift is beginning to show up on area radars to our south and west.
It still appears that none of this rain is reaching the ground as of yet. However, as this re-saturation process continues to take place, did increase PoPs into the 20% range for essentially the entire southern 2/3 of the CWA (including the Coastal Waters) between 06 and 12 UTC, as more Hi-Res Wrf members (including the HRRR) are becoming on board with this fcst.
At this time, did not tweak the grids past 12 UTC Mon, but if the current thinking holds, the higher Pops in the aftn period (18 UTC to 00 UTC) may need to be expedited into the morning group (12 UTC to 18 UTC as well). Otherwise, just made some very minor tweaks to the rest of the current grids for tonight.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A low-level PV anomaly generated from convection across eastern
Texas this afternoon, will reach our western GOMEX waters by
Expect most shower activity associated with this disturbance to remain light and confined mainly to north Florida and points south.
As the disturbance reaches the southeast Big Bend by late afternoon/early evening, it will collide with a thermally induced low-level trough moving west across the Florida peninsula. This will likely result in an uptick in coverage and intensity of showers from Tallahassee eastward, and up into extreme south-central Georgia.
This entire area of showers will likely have some synoptic support from upper level divergence in the split flow pattern.
Our northern Alabama and Georgia counties should remain pleasantly cool on Monday, in the wake of today`s front, likely seeing temperatures peaking the the lower 60s.
Further south, cloud cover from the aforementioned system will keep temperatures much cooler than recent afternoons, in the middle 60s for most spots.
High pressure will start to build in from west to east on the heels of the departing rain maker overnight Monday.
This will yield a sharp gradient in overnight low temperatures, with lower to middle 50s expected to the south and east where showers will linger, and middle 40s expected across southeast Alabama and
portions of southwest Georgia.
The cool high pressure will force its way across the entire Tri-State region on Tuesday, limiting mixing and thereby keeping afternoon highs capped in the 60s area wide.
All rain should clear the southeast Big Bend by mid morning.
Tuesday night will be unseasonably cool, as weak CAA drops lows into the lower 30s to the NE, and around 40 degrees across the southeast Big Bend.
At this time, it seems it may be just dry enough, and winds may
remain just elevated enough to prevent any frost development.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
We`ll remain dry and cooler than average through Thursday.
By Thursday night, a frontal system will approach from the west, not
clearing the region completely until Sunday morning.
MVFR cigs have scattered out everywhere but DHN...where they should scatter out by around 02Z.
VFR cigs will prevail overnight with gusty north winds along and behind the front at ECP, DHN, and ABY.
Rain expected again tomorrow afternoon, probably after 21Z, at ECP and TLH.
MVFR cigs possible with the rain at these sites tomorrow.
Cautionary level northerly winds tonight will veer easterly and subside by tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will once again increase, possibly to cautionary levels on Tuesday as strong high pressure builds into the Gulf.
Winds will peak at advisory levels Tuesday night before subsiding again on Wednesday.
Another increase in winds and seas is expected going into the weekend ahead of another frontal system.
Red flag conditions are not expected until possibly Wednesday.
Rivers across the region have crested or are now nearing crest.
The exception is the lower portions of the Withlacoochee River as well
as the Suwannee River, where a few points may approach flood stage
next week. However, the chance of widespread flooding on the Suwannee is low. Additional rainfall today and Monday will only be a half of an inch or less, so it will not be enough to cause significant rises.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 53 66 52 67 37 / 20 20 40 20 0
Panama City 54 64 53 66 41 / 20 30 40 20 0
Dothan 47 63 47 63 34 / 10 20 20 10 0
Albany 48 63 47 63 32 / 10 10 30 10 0
Valdosta 51 65 51 66 36 / 10 20 40 20 0
Cross City 56 65 56 68 40 / 20 30 60 30 0
Apalachicola 55 63 56 66 43 / 20 40 50 20 0