NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2014
Near Term [Through Today]...
Zonal flow will persist across the southern tier of states today with mainly some high clouds streaming overhead. We are forecasting
some fog this morning over the FL Panhandle and Southeast AL with
some dense fog for the coastal Panhandle counties. Once the morning fog and low clouds lift, temps will rise rapidly with most inland areas topping out in the upper 70s. Areas from Tallahassee east across the eastern FL Big Bend and South Central GA could top 80. These temps are about 4-6 degrees above normal.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
This forecast period will feature increasing rain chances as a surface cold front arrives on Sunday, eventually stalling just south of our local area Sunday Night and Monday.
Despite that, the QG forcing signal is not very pronounced (700-300mb) through much of the period, which suggests that we will most likely end up with light QPF and scattered showers.
The ECMWF and GFS both indicate some marginal instability on Sunday along and ahead of the approaching cold front, so isolated thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast.
While deep layer shear will be quite strong, very poor lapse rates and the marginal nature of the instability should limit any severe weather threat.
Rain showers may continue into Monday as some weak isentropic ascent occurs in the low levels ahead of another digging mid-level shortwave trough.
Monday could be cloudy with occasional rain, so we undercut guidance for the high temperature forecast by a couple degrees.
Elsewhere in the period, the temperature forecast is close to model consensus.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Monday Night and Tuesday are likely to begin the extended period of our fcst on a fairly unsettled note, as the southern branch of the jet stream remains active, and pushes a couple of low pressure
disturbances eastward through our region.
At this time, the synoptic pattern is expected to remain very progressive, Which would keep these systems fast moving, while limiting their chances for severe weather or heavy rainfall.
Then as the weather improves for mid to late week, the zonal flow is expected to transition into a dry trough by Wednesday and Thursday, with perhaps a more unsettled trough developing again by late on Friday or on Saturday.
Nevertheless, after Tuesday, the majority of the period should be
dominated by fair and slighter cooler than normal temperatures.
Both highs and lows could average 4-6 degrees each below climo
through much of this period.
Periods of VLIFR will continue at ECP this morning and DHN is also expected to eventually drop to IFR before sunrise.
Terminals farther east should see nothing below MVFR.
VFR will prevail after 14z, although ECP will begin to drop through MVFR this evening starting around 03z.
Very light winds and limited wave heights will continue through
Sunday as high pressure continues over the regional weather.
Once the cold front passes through the area, northerly winds may reach SCEC levels on Sunday Night.
After a brief lull on Monday, the arrival of a secondary cold front should cause winds and seas to increase once again late Monday Night and into Tuesday, with advisory conditions possible.
Today will not be as dry as yesterday and red flag conditions are not expected.
Increasing moisture is expected into early next week.
Much drier air will then arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday.
River flooding is limited mainly to the Florida Big Bend now, with a
couple of exceptions.
All those that are still in flood are now in recession with the exception of the Withlacoochee and the Suwannee.
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce and Apalachicola River at
Blountstown are both forecast to drop below flood stage Monday night.
The Ochlockonee River at Concord is dropping below moderate flood
stage this morning with Havana expected to follow suit Sunday
The Aucilla River at Lamont will hover just over flood stage through
Sunday afternoon with the St. Marks at Newport and Ecofina at
Perry remaining right at flood stage for a couple more days.
The Withlacoochee River remains in flood and continues to rise.
For the Suwannee River, stages continue to rise with Wilcox possibly
reaching flood stage late next week.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 80 55 76 55 64 / 0 10 60 30 50
Panama City 74 61 72 55 63 / 10 20 60 30 50
Dothan 78 57 73 49 62 / 0 10 60 20 30
Albany 79 54 76 48 61 / 0 10 60 20 30
Valdosta 83 54 76 52 63 / 10 10 60 30 40
Cross City 79 56 76 58 67 / 10 10 50 30 60
Apalachicola 73 59 73 56 64 / 10 20 50 30 60