Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Upper low over nrn Mexico will continue to open-up and eject across
the Rio Grande valley/s TX through tonight.
This will keep shortwave ridging established downstream over the Gulf coast.
All in all, the tranquil pattern will continue through tonight over our region with temperatures dipping into the lower 50s.
Other than patchy fog developing from the Big Bend into the FL Panhandle early tomorrow morning, skies should remain mostly clear with light winds.
Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Clouds and rain chances will increase from west to east during the
day Tuesday, as a short wave trough (currently over northern Mexico
and TX) approaches.
The highest PoP will be Tuesday night. There may be just enough instability for isolated thunderstorms, especially at the coast and offshore.
However, we expect these storms to be elevated, and do not anticipate any severe weather.
The rain may not end completely on Wednesday (even though the short wave will be east of the region) as a cold front will be translating southeastward through our area.
However, any rain with this feature would be light and less widespread.
Temperatures will remain above average, with highs near 80 Tuesday, and mid 70s to near 80 Wednesday (held down a
bit by rain and clouds).
Lows Wednesday morning will be in the mid to upper 50s.
On a curious note, the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF MOS all forecast unusually high winds (near 20 KT, sustained) for our forecast area Wednesday afternoon and evening. We don`t see an obvious reason for this at this time so we undercut these values to better match more typical wind speeds.
Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Strong cold air advection will occur behind the cold front Thursday
night, but there will be enough wind to prevent a freeze.
Highs on Thursday will only be around 60- which is about 10 deg below average, despite sunny skies.
Although 500 mb heights will be rapidly rising Thursday and Thursday night, the coldest temperatures of this cold snap will likely be Friday morning as a surface ridge settles over our area.
Lows may reach freezing in our normally colder inland sites.
At the very least, frost appears likely.
Temperatures will slowly return to near average over the weekend.
The GFS and ECMWF indicate an unsettled weekend and early next week, with a frontal system in the area and moist southwest flow aloft.
Thus our PoP (in the 30-40% range) will be above average.
Aviation...[Through 18Z Tuesday]
VFR conditions will hold into the early morning hours, when RH increases and patchy fog once again develops.
Most likely areas will be across nrn FL/panhandle where MVFR and brief IFR conditions could form.
Elsewhere, vsby restrictions could develop at all sites around daybreak Tuesday.
Once this fog burns off around mid-morning, another VFR day is on
Generally light, onshore winds will continue through Tuesday with a
high pressure ridge near the marine area.
These winds will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday as a bit of a surface reflection (i.e. trough) develops near the upper level trough and moves quickly eastward.
Moderate southwest winds will gradually veer to the west and eventually northwest Wednesday and Wednesday night, likely
reaching advisory levels Wednesday night through early Thursday.
Another weather system will begin impacting the area with clouds and
increasing rain chances beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Ahead of this system RH will remain sufficiently high to preclude a need for any fire weather concerns.
Behind this system, a seasonably strong cold front will usher in strong winds and much drier air which could meet Red Flag criteria Thursday.
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce peaked in action stage and will
continue to fall over the next two days.
Likewise, the Ochlockonee River at Thomasville has peaked at action and will continue to fall through the week, with its increased output causing the downstream sites at Concord and Havana to rise to action stage today and tomorrow respectively, gradually falling back to normal flow later in the week.
Tuesday night we will see some light rainfall totaling 0.5" or less across the area, which is not expected to cause any of the rivers, even the ones at action stage, to rise to flood stage.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 50 77 59 78 43 / 0 10 50 40 10
Panama City 57 70 60 72 44 / 0 30 60 30 10
Dothan 52 77 59 75 38 / 0 20 70 30 10
Albany 51 78 59 77 38 / 0 10 70 50 10
Valdosta 50 81 57 80 40 / 0 0 50 60 10
Cross City 49 77 58 78 42 / 0 0 50 60 10
Apalachicola 55 69 60 73 43 / 0 20 60 30 10