NEAR TERM [Rest of This Afternoon into Tonight]...
The large scale longwave pattern remains amplified highlighted by
ridging over west half, a trough ewd to east coast and a ridge over extreme wrn atlc.
At surface, high well off mid-atlc coast with stnry front swwd across cntrl ga then wwd across se ga.
Subtropical ridge w-e across nrn fl Peninsula. during the early aftn, slow moving MCS developed offshore of extreme wrn panhandle
waters aided by 30-40kt H5 flow across region and moved N-NE
around 25 mph towards SE AL and adjacent SW GA.
Although 03km and 0-6km shear, CAPE below what we would expect with severe storms, band of intense convection at LEADING EDGE causing moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms to its east.
Higher winds did mix down into the stronger storms generating special marine warnings over our Panhandle waters and a severe thunderstorm across portions of Holmes, Walton and Washington counties. Local HRRR implies that strong to severe storms will drift ewd with wind damage remaining possible until around 00z.
Locally heavy rain is possible, and our flash flood guidance remains very high. Still will monitor. Will update as necessary.
Storms are expected to continue through the night, although chances over the eastern part of the forecast area will lower significantly after sunset. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s.
There is some potential for fog tonight, especially to the east
where the winds will be lower.
SHORT TERM [Monday through Tuesday]...
With ample deep layer moisture, CAPE, and Q-G forcing (associated
with the passage of a 500mb trough), we are forecasting above-climo
PoPs for Monday (50-60%).
The trough will be east of our forecast area Tuesday, so any forcing for deep moist convection will have to come from the mesoscale (usually the sea breeze fronts).
With deep layer northwest flow, the sea breeze front will likely get pinned near the coast, which is where our highest PoP will be (about 30%). This PoP is slightly below climo, mainly due to the expected
decrease in deep layer moisture.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through next Sunday]...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement as they forecast the
Southeast to be under northwest flow aloft through Friday, as a long
wave trough develops along the U.S. east coast.
The day-to-day details will be difficult to forecast, as both solutions differ on the timing of minor short waves "diving down" into our forecast area. This far out it`s nearly impossible to time these
disturbances, so we will carry near-climo PoPs until Friday, then
worry about fine-tuning as the week goes on.
Sometimes these disturbances can move through overnight, and sometimes they can be associated with an enhanced threat of organized strong/severe storms (night or day), including damaging winds.
Ironically, the GFS and ECMWF are in excellent agreement in their
timing of a "backdoor" cold front moving through our region on
Friday. Friday`s PoP will be above climo due to this front.
Slightly lower PoPs are forecast for next weekend as a drier airmass moves into the region.
Winds and seas are expected to gradually decrease overnight and Monday as the trough (currently near the Gulf Coast) moves inland and weakens.
Winds and seas are likely to remain below exercise caution levels for the next several days.
Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds throughout
the period, as the typical summertime pattern of daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continues through the next several days.
Area rivers remain below action stage.
The WPC QPF total for the next 5 days is 1 to 2 inches (much of which will occur today and Monday), but isolated amounts could be much higher than this. The localized nature of this heavy rain potential precludes the need for any type of flood watch.
The most vulnerable locations, as usual, are urban environments, where even short durations of high rain rates can cause flooding.
The greatest threat for high QPF is today and Monday, as precip water values will be above climo.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 89 71 93 73 / 20 50 30 30 20
Panama City 75 85 74 88 76 / 30 50 20 30 20
Dothan 71 89 71 95 74 / 50 50 20 20 20
Albany 71 89 71 94 74 / 40 50 20 20 20
Valdosta 70 90 70 95 71 / 30 60 30 20 20
Cross City 71 88 70 90 71 / 20 40 30 30 20
Apalachicola 75 84 74 87 75 / 20 30 20 30 20