Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Storms will continue to develop and increase in intensity this
Modified KTAE sounding yields very high surface based instability in excess of 3500 J/kg. SPC mesoanalysis shows this number as high as 5000 J/kg.
In addition to the sea breeze front, residual outflow boundaries will serve as triggers for additional convection.
SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area through 10 pm ET.
Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats.
Although we are missing some of the most recent CAM runs, the most recently available data keep the upstream MCS over Arkansas north of the region overnight.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Weak ridging and somewhat drier air will build into the region by Monday from the SW and result in a break of the afternoon
thunderstorms that we`ve been seeing the past few days.
Expect Monday to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 90s, with a few locations reaching the upper 90s.
Heat indicies should generally stay in the lower 100s as afternoon dewpoints should benefit from the drier air mixing in, keeping these values in the mid to upper 60s.
A similar pattern for Tuesday is expected, though the ridging will become less established late in the day as a mid level trough begins to approach from the west.
The drier air though should be the primary limiting factor to afternoon convection.
Temperatures will still be warm in the mid 90s most sites.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The long term will be an active period for our region as the
longwave pattern features a strong Atlantic ridge to our east, and
and a strong ridge over Mexico.
As is the case in this regime the forecast area will be under deep layer south to southwesterly flow on the east side of an upper level trough.
Through the period, this trough will slowly slide east through the area.
The abundant moisture, in addition to good instability and the seabreeze, will lead to above average rainfall through at least Friday evening.
After Friday, the models begin to diverge with the GFS trying to dry
things out and the Euro keeping conditions near climatology for our
area. Decided to choose the Euro solution and this will keep our
POPs elevated through Sunday night.
Scattered convection will continue to develop this afternoon and any of the terminals could experience a thunderstorm.
MVFR conditions are expected with any convection, although a brief period of IFR cannot be ruled out in heavier showers.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop during the pre-dawn hours.
Outside of the daily sea breeze circulation, winds and seas will remain low through the forecast period.
The sea breeze on Monday may be a bit stronger than usual with winds around 15 knots near the coast.
Red Flag conditions are not expected this week.
Localized rainfall will continue to be possible with the storms through this afternoon, especially those that remain near the sea breeze boundary.
While these individual storms may briefly present a minor flood threat from high rainfall rates, widespread flooding is not anticipated.
Area rivers have shown some minor rises with the recent rainfall, though all points are expected to remain well below flood stage.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 95 72 94 71 / 20 20 10 20 10
Panama City 75 90 75 89 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
Dothan 72 96 72 93 72 / 30 30 20 20 10
Albany 72 95 72 95 71 / 30 30 20 20 10
Valdosta 70 96 70 95 71 / 30 30 20 20 10
Cross City 71 94 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 20 10
Apalachicola 74 88 74 85 73 / 10 20 10 10 10