NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
An unsettled weather pattern persists for our area with an upper
level trough positioned over much of the eastern CONUS. Deep
south/southwesterly flow is present through the entire atmospheric
column. Therefore expect this maritime tropical air mass to stay
present for the foreseeable future. Weak shortwave impulses
continue to round the base of the upper level trough providing
support for thunderstorms. The current location of these impulses
line up quite well with where current shower and thunderstorm
activity is present on radar. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to persist overnight with the greatest chance being
areas east of Tallahassee.
Besides scattered thunderstorms, the remainder of the night will be
mostly cloudy and muggy with a lows in the mid to lower 70s.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Upper trough extending from western Kentucky to the Louisiana
coast on Monday morning, will slowly slide westward through
Tuesday night. At the surface, weak low pressure over the western
Florida Panhandle will open up into a trough and slide a bit west
Despite the slow westward translation of these features, the corridor of deepest moisture and best lift is forecast to narrow and be primarily confined to the eastern half of the forecast area. As such, will have a pretty sharp PoP gradient from east to west, with likely PoPs to the east tapering to low-end scattered PoPs over the west. With the tropical nature of the flow, the typical diurnal cycle is not expected to hold true, with showers possible just about any time of day or night.
Temperatures will reflect the PoP gradient with mid 80s for highs
in the east, up to the lower 90s over the western zones.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The unsettled pattern will remain in place through at least Thursday as deep southerly flow east of the upper trough remains in place across the southeastern states.
Guidance is pretty good agreement that rain chances may be enhanced further on Wednesday into Thursday as a weak tropical wave gets pulled northward towards the northeastern Gulf Coast.
With the enhanced tropical feed, will need to monitor closely for any flash flood potential for these two days.
By late the week and into the weekend, the upper trough is forecast to slide farther to the west with the subtropical ridge building in over Florida. This should result in rain chances returning to seasonal normals by Friday and Saturday.
AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...
Numerous showers and storms will continue to affect the ABY/VLD/TLH terminals through late this afternoon with at least MVFR conditions, though ocnl IFR levels are possible.
A brief respite in storms are expected through the early overnight hours before redevelopment begins offshore.
Could see another batch of storms around 12z Monday at TLH/VLD and possibly moving into ABY around 14z.
Moderate southerly flow is forecast to continue over the coastal
waters through much of this week as the region remain situated
between low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east.
Exercise caution conditions will be possible over the eastern waters through Tuesday, with lighter winds to the west. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the week.
No concerns as deep layer southwesterly flow will keep moisture
An additional 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts are possible today across the Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend and Southwestern Georgia.
Some of the faster responding creeks and streams in the Florida Panhandle will likely rise to near bankfull or possibly reach minor flood stage.
The larger stem rivers are not anticipated to reach flood stage.
Urbanized flooding may become an increasing concern as rainfall totals add up over the next couple of days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 74 89 72 89 71 / 40 50 40 60 50
Panama City 77 89 76 88 75 / 30 30 30 40 50
Dothan 73 91 71 91 71 / 20 30 20 40 40
Albany 73 90 72 89 71 / 40 50 30 50 40
Valdosta 74 87 72 87 70 / 50 70 60 60 40
Cross City 75 88 72 88 71 / 60 70 60 70 50
Apalachicola 78 87 76 86 77 / 50 50 40 50 50