NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
A weak upper low over Georgia combined with a low level trough
extending from near Tallahassee up the Carolina coasts, will lead to
another convectively active day for portions of the forecast area.
As was the case on Friday, expect the highest rain chances along and
to the east of the low level trough.
In addition, low level flow is expected to be more out of the southeast today, which may push the activity further inland than on Friday. Therefore, have drawn the highest afternoon PoPs across south central Georgia and the northeastern Big Bend. Early in the day, CAMS guidance is in good agreement on an early start to convection over Apalachee Bay. This activity should then spread inland over inland portions of the Big Bend by mid to late morning.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...
Seasonably warm, humid weather will occur in our region during this
period, with daytime heating and the sea breeze sparking some
scattered convection during the afternoon and early evening hours,
and most of the precipitation dying out after sunset.
The front which has been stalled over our area should dissipate by
Saturday night, so the synoptic pattern during this period will be
dominated by light southerly flow around the southwest edge of the
However, a weak upper shortwave feature will move through the Southeast on Sunday, slightly enhancing precipitation chances over our Alabama and Georgia counties.
By Monday, this feature should exit the area, and a broad upper level ridge will build eastward in its place. Due to these factors, precipitation chances will slightly decrease on Monday, and highs will warm a couple degrees over our inland counties.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Friday]...
Much of the long term period will be dominated by the subtropical
high over the eastern Atlantic keeping our area in light south to southeasterly flow.
Towards Thursday and Friday we will switch around to light west/southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing cold front.
Rain chances will be more seasonable with typical sea breeze thunderstorms expected in the afternoon.
AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...
Expect to see some low cigs at KTLH and KVLD around sunrise this
morning. Cigs at or just below BKN010 are possible.
Thereafter, VFR conditions should prevail.
However, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected once again, especially at the eastern 3 terminals (KTLH, KABY, and KVLD).
The marine area will be on the western edge of the subtropical ridge
well into next week.
This will create generally southeasterly to southerly flow at 10 knots or less aside from the daytime sea breeze circulation.
Low level moisture will remain plentiful through the forecast period
with no fire weather concerns.
Average rainfall amounts over the next five days or so over most
of our area should be low enough to prevent any significant rises
on area rivers.
However, multiple consecutive days with high coverage of thunderstorms could contribute to some very localized flooding problems - mainly in urban areas or on smaller streams that respond quickly to heavy rainfall.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 89 71 92 72 94 / 50 30 40 20 40
Panama City 87 73 88 75 86 / 40 30 40 20 40
Dothan 91 71 90 72 93 / 40 20 50 20 40
Albany 89 70 91 72 93 / 50 30 50 30 40
Valdosta 88 70 92 71 94 / 70 30 50 30 40
Cross City 90 70 91 71 91 / 50 30 40 30 40
Apalachicola 85 73 88 74 85 / 60 30 30 20 30