Near Term [Through Tonight]...
With the robust intrusion from the very dry Sfc ridge to our NE, which brought surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s from east to west earlier today into the CWA, much of the expected convection over eastern portions of the region never formed.
However, during the past couple of hours, Tds have risen into the
mid to upper 60s, and a new band of showers and storms has formed
over western portions of the FL Panhandle, so the 30 to 50% PoPs
through 00 UTC remain justified in this area.
Additionally, a few new showers have popped up over eastern sections of the CWA in the 20-30% area.
A few of these showers and storms could linger a bit past 00 UTC, with a fair and cool night expected thereafter.
Lows once again should end up in the middle 60s to the NE and the upper 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast.
Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The upper level pattern evolves into a more zonal flow across the
central and northern CONUS with an east-west oriented ridge across
the southern U.S.
In response to the ridge, a weak surface high will develop across the southeast with a gradual drying trend through the period.
On Tuesday scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
confined once again to the far western portion of our area in southeast AL and the FL panhandle.
Expect drying on Tuesday night as the surface high builds across the area with conditions generally dry through Wednesday night.
Temperatures will be a little warmer inland than we have seen for
the past few days due to less precipitation and cloud cover, with
highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s.
The typical sea breeze both Tuesday and Wednesday will keep temperatures cooler near the coast.
Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The period begins with an upper level high over Texas.
This will help suppress afternoon thunderstorm activity through Friday.
Thereafter, a shortwave passing through the northern stream weakens the ridge over the Eastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula.
As a result, moisture from the south will be pulled northward and with
less ridging, rain chances will trend up by the weekend.
Typical afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity is expected into early next week.
Temperatures will be seasonal and warm with light southerly flow.
There`s been some focus on the disturbed area in the Southern Gulf.
At this point, model ensemble guidance - as well as the operational
runs - offer no reasonable run to run consistency or solution to
adequately predict if anything tropical will eventually organize in
this area and even pose a threat to our region.
It`s important to continue to monitor this area for development, but it is still too early to speculate on impacts, if any at all, to our region.
After the drying morning and early afternoon, initially thought all of the terminals would be free from convection today.
Late this afternoon, however, it appears ECP will get a potential shower or storm, possibly reducing Vis/Cigs to MVFR levels.
Also, a brief shower could impact the other Taf sites before sunset, but impacts should be negligible.
Overnight and for the remainder of the period, expect VFR conditions to prevail, but did insert a tempo for DHN for MVFR Cigs between 10 and 14 UTC.
An easterly surge of winds today resulted in a small craft advisory
through this evening.
Wind and waves will gradually decrease overnight.
For Tuesday expect moderate southeast winds around 15 kts, with lighter winds and low seas through the end of the week.
No Red Flag concerns are expected for the next several days.
There are no hydrologic concerns for the remainder of the week.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 68 88 67 91 70 / 20 20 10 10 10
Panama City 72 84 71 88 73 / 20 30 10 10 10
Dothan 67 88 69 93 71 / 20 30 20 10 10
Albany 67 90 70 93 71 / 10 20 10 10 10
Valdosta 65 88 65 92 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
Cross City 67 88 64 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 75 83 70 86 70 / 20 30 10 10 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.