NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
The large scale pattern shows a longwave trough from low over Nrn
most Great Lakes/Srn most Canada with axis SWD down into Gulf of
Mex. This shunting Ern ridge EWD with axis now in extreme Wrn Atlc.
At surface, low over Ern Canada with cold front SWWD to low over Nrn
Al then wsw into NE Gulf of Mex during the eve.
During overnight, assocd shortwave at base of low will swing EWD.
This will push weakening cold front SEWD with low lifting to NRN GA
and front approaching SE AL by sunrise.
Will leave a 50-20% NW-SE chance of showers and thunderstorms. This will keep area in warm sector with PWATS remaining around 1.5 inches and combined with veering winds, and light onshore flow, stratus cigs a good bet most areas with at least patchy to areas of fog with the focus SE third of area.
Ample clouds will allow for mild lows, 70 to 75.
SHORT TERM [Monday through Wednesday]...
The axis of the 500mb trough will translate eastward across the
local region Monday, with the associated weak cold front approaching
from the northwest. The trough will deamplify as it lifts to the
northeast on tuesday with the cold front either stalling of washing
out over our CWA.
Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture will be gradually surging northward up the Florida peninsula and easternmost gulf.
Models continue to show a weak low developing over the southeast gulf and lift it northeastward toward the west coast of Florida.
However, there has yet to be any run to run consistency on strength and track of this system. Impacts if any will be beyond the short term period.
The most active days for convection should be Monday and Wednesday with a slight decrease on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough.
Highs will be in the lower 90s inland to the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Lows will be around 70.
LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
Much uncertainty exists with the future track and strength of a
possible surface low in the eastern gulf to get too specific.
For now will just show chance PoPs each day to at least account for sea breeze convection.
Temps will be near seasonal levels.
AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...
Will go with VCTS and MVFR CIGS until around 01z.
Then, MVFR CIGS/FOG expected after 06Z with IFR CIGS and borderline VSBYS possible towards sunrise, especially at KVLD. Rain and VCTS expected mainly KDHN.
After 14Z, VCTS thru rest of period with prob30 shwrs KDHN and KECP and MVFR CIGS all but KVLD.
Winds and seas will be at typically low summertime values until
Tuesday afternoon or evening, as peripheral effects from a
developing low pressure system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico begin.
Taking a rough average of the GFS and ECMWF solutions, we think that any affects from this non-tropical (or perhaps "subtropical") low
pressure system would be on the low end, limited to marginal
advisory level conditions mid to late week.
Relative humidity values will stay above red flag criteria through
With all of the local rivers currently below action stage, it appears unlikely that the expected rainfall over the next few days will be heavy and concentrated enough to produce river flooding or widespread flash flooding.
While we don`t anticipate a deep tropical connection with this frontal system (the kind often associated with extreme rain rates in the summer), precip water values will still be above average, and high enough for some pretty heavy rain rates.
The 850-500mb mean layer winds will be around 10 KT Monday, which should be enough to prevent stationary cells. The only potential flooding problem would be if training of cells occurred along mesoscale convergence bands.
The deep tropospheric flow will weaken by Tuesday, which will cause convective cells to move very slowly. Thus there could be a little more potential for localized flooding on Tuesday, depending on how much deep moist convection finally develops.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 71 90 71 92 72 / 30 40 40 40 30
PANAMA CITY 73 87 73 91 74 / 30 40 30 30 30
DOTHAN 71 90 71 92 73 / 50 50 30 30 30
ALBANY 71 91 71 93 72 / 40 50 40 30 30
VALDOSTA 70 93 69 93 71 / 30 60 50 40 30
CROSS CITY 71 90 69 89 71 / 30 50 40 50 30
APALACHICOLA 74 87 72 87 73 / 30 40 30 30 30