Dothan Area Weather Forecast Jun 15

Near Term [Today]...

A Weak Stationary Front/Trough Stretched West To East Across The
Northern Rim Of The Gulf From Louisiana To Just South Of The Florida Panhandle This Morning. This Boundary Will Dissipate Today As Upper Ridging Builds In From The West And The Surface Ridge Begins To Reestablish Itself Across The Local Region.

Time Height Cross Sections, Forecast Soundings And Water Vapor
Imagery Show That Much Drier Air Has Filtered Into The Region,
Especially North Of The Florida Border. This Along With Subsidence
Drying Due To The Building Upper Ridge Should Help To Suppress Deep Convection Today.

We Only Expect Isolated Afternoon Showers/Tstms This Afternoon Over The Florida Zones As The Sea Breeze Advances Inland.

High Temperatures Should Be A Bit Warmer, Especially To The
West Closer To The Ridge, Where Mid 90s Will Be Common Away From The Coast.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Commences Highlighted By A Ridge Centered Over Wrn Gulf Region With 593dm High South Of La, And A Full Latitude Trough Over Wrn Atlc. As Trough Continues To Move Ewd, Gulf Ridge Noses Newd Into Local Region. At Surface, Cold Front Currently Moving Across Marine Area Will Continue To Weaken And Become Diffuse Under Increasing Influence Of Subtropical Gulf Ridge. In Its Wake, High In Atlc Just East Of Sc With Ridge Swwd Across Local Area.

For Sun Into Mon, The Gulf Ridge Is Forecast To Flatten (Elongate)
Swd As A Passing Vortlobe Skirts The Nrn Gulf Region. This Will
Also Retrograde H5 High Back Towards Tx Coast And Shunt Surface
High Further Ewd Into Atlc Resulting Locally In Veering Winds And
A Modest Increase In Deep Layer Moisture.

Absent Front, Synoptic Onshore Flow And Seabreeze Take Over Allowing For Slightly Higher Pops Each Day. Will Go With 30-20% S-N Pop Gradient On Sun Increasing To 30-40% Sw-Ne On Mon.

However, If Gulf And East Coast Seabreeze Collide In Late Aftn Across Our Ern Counties, Aided By Passing Vort Especially On Mon, Then Increasing Rain Amounts And Chance For Stronger Storms Become Possible.

Lack Of Clouds Should Keep Min Temps Tonight A Few Degrees Below Normal. Expect Inland Lows Tonight From Mid 60s East To Low 70s West. With Veering Winds And Added Clouds Sun Night, Min Temps Rise To Low 70s Everywhere.

The Development Of Seabreeze And Aftn Clouds Should Lower Temps From Recent Days, Especially In Cooler Beach Temps.

Expect Highs Sat And Sun From Mid 80s Coast To Low 90s Nrn

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

The Tri-State Area Will Be On The Southern Periphery Of The Faster Westerlies Early Next Week With Scattered Afternoon/Evening
Convection Expected.

Depending On The Timing Of A Shortwave Passing To The North And Its Associated Surface Boundary, Rain Chances May Be Higher On Tuesday Through Thursday (Especially Over The Northern Zones).

Temperatures Are Expected To Remain Near Seasonal Norms.

Aviation...[Through 06z Sunday]

Vfr Conditions Will Prevail Across The Area With The Drier Airmass
In Place.

Isolated Thunderstorms Could Develop Over North Florida As The Sea Breeze Moves Onshore, And Possibly Affect Ecp And Tlh.

However, Precipitation Chances Will Remain Low, And Vfr Conditions
Will Continue At Most Locations Throughout The Day.

Winds Will Be East To Southeast Around 10 Knots.


Winds Should Continue To Diminish Through The Weekend As The The Stationary Front Washes Out And The Subtropical Ridge Becomes Reestablished Across The Northern Gulf Of Mexico.

Winds And Seas Should Remain Low Through The Middle Of Next Week.

Fire Weather...
Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected For The Next Several Days.


River Gauges Are Expected To Remain Below Flood Stage For At Least The Next Several Days.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 92 71 91 71 91 / 20 10 30 20 30
Panama City 89 75 87 75 86 / 20 10 20 20 20
Dothan 94 71 92 73 92 / 10 10 30 20 40
Albany 93 69 92 72 93 / 10 0 20 20 40
Valdosta 93 67 93 71 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
Cross City 92 69 92 70 91 / 20 10 30 20 30
Apalachicola 88 75 85 75 85 / 20 10 20 20 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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