NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a long wave trough
translating eastward off the U.S. east coast, with much of the
Southeast now under sinking, drying northwest flow aloft. Recent
GOES imagery showed Precip Water values had returned to near climo values, which is much lower than 24 hours ago.
The consensus of MOS and the Convection Allowing Models (CAM) is
that today`s PoP will be below climo for most of our forecast
area. The only PoP above 10% is from I-10 southward, ranging from
20% near I-10 to 30% near the coast. This is where surface
convergence and MLCAPE (around 2000 J/kg) will be maximized as the sea breeze front interacts with the orthogonal 1000-700 mb mean
wind. Although the dry air aloft will effectively choke off most
of the convective updrafts today, small pockets of strong updrafts
(owing to mesoscale forcing) will still be possible, as some of the
CAM forecast updraft speeds of around 20 m/s. Such updrafts can be
associated with strong wind gusts, hail, and frequent lightning,
and it`s not unheard of to get a pulse, marginally severe storm in
this kind of synoptic pattern (i.e. deep northwest flow and very
unstable airmass). We expect nearly all thunderstorms to dissipate
After a hot day with highs in the mid 90s, lows will drop into the
SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
High pressure aloft and winds from the west at the surface will keep
away rain chances Wednesday and let highs warm up to the upper 90s inland to low 90s along the immediate coast. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday an upper level short wave trof swings through the eastern side of the upper level ridge. This shortwave is enhancing a surface low over the northern Plains today and models have this area of low pressure gaining some frontal qualities to it as it heads to the east coast by Thursday. While most of the models keep the convection to our north, there are some chances of rain for our northeastern and eastern counties- about 20% Thursday afternoon and 30% Thursday night.
With only slight chances of rain focused in the late afternoon, temps are expected to warm to the upper 90s again Thursday. Lows will be in the mid 70s.
LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
Continuing from the short term, we have a frontal system possibly
reaching our area around Thursday night and exiting to the southeast
by overnight Friday night.
Rain chances will stay low once again thanks to high pressure aloft and at the surface, although some convection from the sea-breeze may be possible.
Monday through Tuesday rain chances increase again as another shortwave moves through with a similar setup to the Thursday-Friday rain chances.
Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s are expected through the period.
AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...
Prevailing VFR conditions are likely for the remainder of today.
Widely scattered TSRA were developing between I-10 and the coast,
and could affect KTLH and KECP this afternoon. However, the PoP is
only 20% for these sites.
Areas of MVFR cigs are possible around dawn, but confidence is not high enough to forecast this in this TAF package except at KVLD. In fact, the GFS and NAM MOS forecast IFR cigs.
Westerly winds will remain below advisory levels through the period, but may approach cautionary levels briefly Thursday night through Friday with a frontal system approaching from the north.
Otherwise, winds and waves will be at typical low summertime levels
through the forecast period.
Although the airmass will be a bit drier today and Wednesday than in
recent days, Red Flag conditions are not expected.
After the recent heavy rainfall across the area, two river points over our Hydrological Area of Responsibility did manage to climb into Action Stage. These were the Shoal River at Mossy Head FL, and
the Little River at Hahira GA. As of early this morning however, only Hahira remains above action stage, and with a generally Hot and Dry week ahead, all area rivers and streams should be in a receding
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 70 97 72 97 75 / 10 10 10 20 20
Panama City 76 92 76 91 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 74 98 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 20
Albany 73 99 74 99 73 / 10 10 10 20 30
Valdosta 70 100 72 98 73 / 10 10 10 20 30
Cross City 70 95 72 94 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 74 91 75 90 77 / 10 10 10 10 10