NEAR TERM [Today]...
Upper level ridging over the SE U.S. and surface high pressure over
the Atlantic seaboard continues to define our local pattern today.
With weakness in the upper levels and the beginnings of our
seabreeze season, we are expecting another day of scattered light
showers across the area, with higher chances in our Florida counties.
Highs today will be in the upper 80s and low 90s, normal for this time of year.
Today, June 1, marks the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane
season (through November 30) and of our local sea-breeze season
(through August 31).
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Modest 500mb height falls will occur on Sunday as a trough
(currently over the Central Plains) translates eastward Sunday and
Monday. A weakening cold front will stall across our forecast area
Monday. There will be enough Q-G forcing and mesoscale boundary
interactions within the warm, moist environment to trigger
scattered deep moist convection each day.
The highest rain chances will be during the afternoon and early evening hours, when instability is maximized. Despite the increased rain chances, the expected cloud cover does not appear enough to prevent high temperatures from reaching 90.
Although there were a lot of severe thunderstorms associated with
this system Friday, it will have weakened markedly before reaching
our forecast area.
With such weak winds from the surface to 500mb, significant storm organization appears unlikely, which should keep our threat of severe storms low. However, there will probably be sufficient instability for a pulse strong-severe storm or two during the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday. The probability of a severe storm within 25 miles of a point is generally 5% or less. Localized flooding is also possible.
Although precip water values are not expected to be "excessive" (by summertime standards), there will be enough moisture for heavy rain rates. The steering flow will likely be very weak, which could allow heavy accumulations over very narrow bands. This threat is currently not high enough to warrant any consideration of flood watches.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences with a trough over Wrn
states, ridging over Cntrl states EWD to Appalachians and a trough
from Ern seaboard into Wrn Atlc with axis just off Ern seaboard. At
the surface, low over Quebec with front SWD down extreme Wrn Atlc
then bisecting local area. This has pushed persistent area ridge
into Wrn Atlc.
Looking SWD, models in decent agreement with the development of an area of low pressure over the SRN Gulf of Mex likely over the Bay of Campeche.
During the rest of the period, Ern trough moves offshore while cold front slow, stalls and washes out near the coast on Tues. In its wake, upstream ridge shifts EWD with steering flow shifting to NW as drier air overspreads the Gulf region with a return to limited afternoon and evening shallow seabreeze convection.
However, at the same time, ample tropical moisture from SRN Gulf flow begins to spread newd towards FL. There remains models differences on low development and in how fast and how far north moisture will spread.
Local area will show 20-30% Mon night, 20-50% on Tues, 20-40%
Tues night and Wed, then 30-50% Thurs and Fri.
With weak deep layer shear and departing upper dynamics should limit any severe weather.
Seasonable temperatures should occur throughout the period, with
highs generally in the low 90s and lows in the mid- upper 60s.
AVIATION [Through 06 UTC Sunday]...
A brief period of MVFR ceilings is expected again this morning, but
should scatter out by around 14-15Z.
Winds from the southeast at around 5-10 knots, with gusts possible, especially at ECP.
Winds were around 15 KT, but should gradually diminish by this
afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens considerably.
Light winds and low seas will continue until early in the work week,
when a low pressure system (currently in the Bay of Campeche)
moves northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Our forecast is a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and NCEP guidance. It`s too early to tell how much of a direct impact this system will have
Relative humidity values will stay above red flag criteria through
With all of the local rivers currently below action stage, it appears unlikely that the expected rainfall through Tuesday will be heavy and concentrated enough to produce river flooding or widespread flash flooding.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 89 73 90 71 90 / 40 20 40 20 40
Panama City 86 74 85 73 86 / 40 20 40 20 40
Dothan 91 72 92 72 91 / 30 20 40 40 40
Albany 92 72 91 71 91 / 20 20 40 30 40
Valdosta 90 69 94 70 93 / 20 20 40 30 50
Cross City 90 70 89 70 88 / 40 20 40 20 40
Apalachicola 85 74 83 73 84 / 40 20 30 20 30
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