The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed an area of high
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley, providing our forecast area with east winds at the surface. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a high pressure area centered near the surface high, also
providing our region with fairly strong east winds. Modest 500 mb
height rises coupled with drying, sinking air aloft should result in much less deep moist convection today.
GOES special sensor Precip Water imagery indicated values 20% below climatology over north FL, which typically coincides with just isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. There were numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Panhandle coastal waters this morning, but those will likely dissipate by mid afternoon. Because of the dry air aloft, some of the convection today will be shallow (showers), and it`s unlikely that the few thunderstorms that do develop will be severe. Flooding is also unlikely today (a welcome change) given the below-average vapor content of the troposphere and the expected rapid westward motion of showers.
Temperatures will be near average- in the lower 90s.
MVFR CIGS were still present at almost all terminals expect TLH,
which appears to have begun to mix out. This trend should continue
over the next few hours at remaining terminals.
Looking at BUFKIT time/height cross section analysis and current observations, it appears that gusts up to 20 knots can be expected as broken cloud decks continue to mix out.
Much drier air is making its way into our area, so there is no mention of showers or thunderstorms in TAFs this afternoon.
Expect IFR cigs to develop in the early morning hours tomorrow much like we`ve been seeing the past couple of days.
Most river levels continue to be in slow recession with the Choctawhatchee still solidly above flood levels. While it will take Bruce some time to drop below flood stage, river levels should be on the decline at the Caryville gage and receding at a level fast enough that the Choctawhatchee could drop below flood stage there by the latter part of this week.
The Middle Suwannee River will begin cresting through the middle
part of this week and remain below action stage at the forecast
points from Ellaville through Branford. We are seeing some rises on
the Lower Suwannee with Wilcox possibly moving toward action stage late this week. Flood stages are not expected to be met in the Lower Suwannee River.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 71 93 70 / 20 10 20 10
Panama City 88 74 89 75 / 20 20 20 10
Dothan 90 70 92 71 / 20 10 20 10
Albany 90 71 92 71 / 20 10 20 10
Valdosta 91 69 92 70 / 20 20 20 20
Cross City 90 69 93 70 / 20 20 30 20
Apalachicola 87 75 88 75 / 20 20 20 10