NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Current forecast appears on track for the remainder of today and
tonight. Shortly after sunset most showers and thunderstorms
should have diminished, but there is a slight chance some stick
around in our far western CWA a bit longer. Expect a general
clearing of skies from east to west as dry air continues to move
into our area. Therefore expect mostly clear skies with low
temperatures reaching the lower 70s.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Wednesday]...
A surface ridge will remain established across the northeastern
GOM with associated high center settling generally sewd off the
Carolina coast over the next several days. This will maintain
general e-sely surface winds. Aloft, TUTT low feature will
continue to move across the Bahamas early in the week and into the
ern GOM by mid week. This will gradually bring drier mid/upper
level air, evident on WV-imagery off the southeast coast this
afternoon, wwd into our area through the early part of next week.
This should aid in providing some relief from the more widespread
showers and tstms we have been dealing with, and result in lower
Overall, pattern will remain fairly seasonal with high temperatures rising into the upper 80s/lower 90s along the coast to the mid 90s inland for Tue and Wed.
LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
A rather unsettled pattern will continue across the region into next weekend with abundant low level moisture supporting typical
summer-like thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Models
drift weakening mid/upper low into the nern Gulf of Mexico by mid-
week, and amplify large upper high over the srn/central Rockies.
This should reestablish a well defined trough over the eastern 1/3
of the CONUS, with mid/upper low perhaps digging sswwd into the
area next weekend.
Overall, expect near seasonal temperatures.
Drier air is gradually filtering across the the area from east to west resulting in less afternoon thunderstorm coverage and especially along and east of a KABY-KVLD line.
Expect occasional thunderstorms 19Z-23Z at KTLH, KECP, and KDHN
with clearing after 00Z.
With less rainfall this afternoon and some drying, only put any fog tomorrow morning at KDHN, KECP, and KABY from 09Z-12Z.
Surface ridge will remain predominant across the region with east
to southeast winds.
Expect seas and overall conditions to return to more typical values for mid summer.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical values, so no fire weather concerns are expected for the foreseeable future.
Expect a gradual improvement in overall river flooding issues as
we move into next week.
Expect Choctawhatchee to crest at Caryville and Bruce early in the week.
Elsewhere, most sites should have crested at this point.
Thunderstorms can still create short-term flooding problems if they move over areas already inundated. However, these should be fewer in number/coverage over the next several days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 90 72 93 71 / 20 40 20 20 20
Panama City 75 88 74 90 75 / 20 40 20 20 20
Dothan 73 91 72 94 73 / 30 40 20 30 20
Albany 73 92 72 94 72 / 30 40 20 30 20
Valdosta 72 91 70 93 70 / 20 30 20 30 20
Cross City 71 92 70 93 70 / 20 30 20 20 20
Apalachicola 74 87 73 88 75 / 20 40 20 20 20