Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Current forecast is on track with warm and dry conditions expected for the remainder of the afternoon for the CWA.
High temperatures will be near the mid 90s.
Most locations should remain rain free this afternoon except for extreme eastern portions of the CWA.
For this evening, raised minimum temperatures up a degree or two to account for increasing moisture in our CWA with low 70s expected across the region.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The generally suppressed convective pattern that was in place for
much of the weekend will linger into Monday. Although PWATs may
increase slightly from 24 hours prior, they should still be well below normal for July on the Gulf coast.
There will probably be a few isolated showers and storms on Monday afternoon, but coverage should be mostly around 10% - perhaps slightly higher in the eastern Florida Big Bend.
By Tuesday, PWATs climb closer to average levels for July.
With moderate southwesterly low-level flow, which usually features scattered thunderstorms focused mainly in our Florida zones, the rain coverage should be slightly higher Tuesday afternoon and evening.
We went with 20% PoPs in our Alabama and Georgia zones, with 30% in Florida which is still below normal for this time of year.
Afternoon highs should remain in the mid-90s with lows in the low-mid 70s.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Beginning Thursday, models are in fairly good agreement that a
developing longwave trough axis from the Appalachians to the
Florida Panhandle will be accompanied by a cold front reaching the
This should increase rain chances late this week and into the weekend.
Given that, PoPs are slightly above normal values - closer to 50-60% - and high temperatures are slightly cooler than what we`ve seen recently by a degree or two.
All terminals are expected to remain in VFR conditions throughout the period.
Like yesterday, a small chance of VCTS is possible at VLD. There is a chance of MVFR conditions at VLD and ABY around 10-14z tomorrow.
The weather pattern will feature typical summer conditions for the
next several days with winds generally 10 knots or less and seas 2
feet or less.
With the return of normal summer conditions, fire weather concerns
will be at a minimum through the week.
With river levels running at or below base flows and no widespread
heavy rain expected, flooding concerns are at a minimum.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 70 95 72 96 73 / 0 10 10 30 20
Panama City 76 89 75 91 76 / 0 10 10 20 10
Dothan 71 94 72 95 74 / 10 10 0 20 10
Albany 71 95 72 95 73 / 10 10 0 20 10
Valdosta 70 96 70 98 72 / 10 10 10 20 20
Cross City 71 93 71 93 73 / 20 20 10 30 20
Apalachicola 74 89 75 90 76 / 0 10 10 20 20