NEAR TERM [Today]...
The long wave pattern remains highly amplified for this time of year
with a ridge over the Southwest, a trough axis over the Mississippi
Valley, and a ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast. A TUTT low can be
seen over the Atlantic and is beginning to undercut this ridge.
In fact, the blocky pattern has finally begun to show some signs of
weakening. However, for today at least, the forecast will area
remain in the same deep layer tropical conveyor belt that we have
been in for days. Satellite derived Total Precipitable water values
remain over 2 inches locally and across the entire Gulf of Mexico.
The various CAMs are focusing the heaviest showers today a bit
further east than recent days, more along the eastern portion of the
flash flood watch area. Recent radar trends seem to be supporting
this slight shift. However, the waterlogged FL Panhandle is still in
the cross hairs as well. The (Flash Flood) watch will be left in place as is.
Highest rainfall totals over the next 36 hours are expected to be
around 3 inches over the watch area, with the best chances in Walton
County. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible. PoPs range
from 100 across the western zones to about 50 east of I-75. With all
of the clouds and persistent showers, we decided to go a few degrees below MOS over our western zones for max temps today. Look for upper 70s far west to around 90 near Valdosta.
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
The large scale longwave blocking pattern will continue tonight with
ridging over west half, trough over Cntrl into Ern states with low
over SE MO,and a ridge over Ern seaboard Ewd into Wrn Atlc with deep layer high off Carolinas. TUTT low approaching Bahamas. Atlc surface high with axis Ewd over SE region. CAM and high res model shows some rain working its way eastward across CWA until around
During the rest of this period, trough/low lifts newd with low opening up over PA by Mon aftn. This progressive lifting deamplifies pattern and allows Atlc ridge to expand swd with H5 ridge nosing swwd with drier air working in while TUTT low reaches fl keys placing fl on dry subsident side. Mean ridge will remain off Carolina Coast thru Mon with ESE steering flow.
On the flipside, this shifting pattern returns us closer to a normal seabreeze pattern, especially over the Ern part of our forecast area. This will be aided by a weak low pressure at lower levels in the Nrn GoMex helping to forcing for showers and thunderstorms. This reflected in area PWATs which remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range. Flooding will still be a concern as it takes time for basins to recede, especially after the amount of rain we`ve seen.
However, the threat of new additional flooding is low.
Clouds and rain will remain focused across west half of area. Will
go with 20-60% and 30-50% SE-NW POP gradients Sun and Mon
respectively. Temps will return to near normal levels. Expect upper
80s west to low 90s Sun rising to around 90 west to low-mid 90s east
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
Weak ridging aloft and at the surface will begin to build Ewd as the
pattern deamplifies. Seasonal PoPs (around 40%) expected to take
over early next week. Around mid-week (Wed/Thurs), a weak UL trof
will swing through the Great Lakes region and a TUTT will be in the
Ern Gulf, which will create another disturbed pattern for our area.
Confidence is lower that far out in the run, but PoPs Thurs and Fri
around 40-50%. Temps will return to seasonal norms with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
We once again went with a largely persistence forecast for this TAF cycle. The terminals may see a couple of hours of IFR/MVFR ceilings this morning. Showers and associated MVFR ceilings and IFR vsby will commence early, possibly before sunrise, at ECP and DHN.
It does appear that these areas may see a lull during much of the afternoon.
Further east, we are going with more typical afternoon thunderstorms for ABY, TLH and VLD.
Exercise caution level winds will persist into this afternoon, west of the Apalachee Bay. Otherwise, a ridge will build west from the Atlantic.
As a result, winds and seas will gradually fall over rest of the weekend and should return to our summertime norm by early next week.
Red Flag conditions are not expected in the foreseeable future.
The flash flood threat continues across the western half of our
forecast area through Saturday evening, with the greatest threat
across the Florida Panhandle. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible once again there.
On area rivers, the St. Marks near Newport is in slow recession and
will dip below moderate flood stage this morning.
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has reached minor flood stage and is forecast to plateau about two feet above for several days beginning Sunday.
The Aucilla River near Lamont is expected to reach minor flood stage
if any additional rain falls. However, it has leveled off just below that level this morning.
The Choctawhatchee River has appears to be reaching a second crest this morning at Newton.
At Caryville, the river is close to cresting, but should hold at or slightly above current levels for days.
Downstream at Bruce, the river is above moderate flood stage and is forecast to reach major flood stage Sunday morning.
The Shoal River at Mossy Head crested Friday morning and has fallen back below flood stage. As more rain falls across the area, we will continue to monitor this flashy river.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 87 72 89 71 92 / 80 40 40 20 30
Panama City 80 75 87 76 87 /100 50 50 30 40
Dothan 82 71 88 72 90 /100 50 60 30 40
Albany 87 72 90 73 91 / 80 50 50 20 30
Valdosta 90 70 91 71 93 / 50 40 30 20 30
Cross City 88 70 92 70 92 / 50 40 20 20 30
Apalachicola 83 76 86 77 87 / 90 40 40 20 30
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening for Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton- Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-