Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A warm, but comfortable, afternoon/evening for summer is forecasted
for all areas except extreme southeast Big Bend and Georgia.
18z surface analysis continues to show a decaying stationary front in
our southeastern zones around Cross City.
South and East of this front, dew points are in the low to mid 70s with typical summer conditions while north and west of this front dew points are struggling to reach the mid 60s as afternoon mixing and dry air is keeping dewpoints suppressed.
Most areas should remain rain-free except for extreme eastern parts of our GA and FL counties where 30 PoPs reside.
High temperatures will be warm and most areas should see low to mid 90s this afternoon.
For this update, lowered min temps down a degree or two considering many locations this morning got down into the mid to upper 60s and dry air is still forecast to remain in much of the forecast area.
Tallahassee even set a new record low of 64 degrees this morning.
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Despite some gradual recovery in deep layer moisture over Sunday
and Monday, precipitable water values will remain at or below 1.5
inches, which is well below normal for July.
This should keep convective activity fairly suppressed, with PoPs 20% or less in most areas.
Highs will be in the mid 90s with lows around 70.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
High pressure will dominate most of the work week, bringing
seasonal weather to the region.
This means scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening time frame.
Highs will be in the mid 90s with lows in the low 70s.
Thursday an upper level trough will bring increased rain chances through next weekend.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for all terminals except for VLD and ABY where MVFR cigs/vis are possible from 09z-15z.
While not listed in TAFs due to very low confidence, isolated TSRA could impact VLD from 21-00z.
A typical summertime pattern featuring relatively weak winds of less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less will persist.
Enhanced onshore winds with the sea breeze are likely near the coast each afternoon.
Morning thunderstorm activity may be more isolated than is typical for this time of year.
A much drier airmass is in place across the southeast, keeping
relative humidity values low, around 30 to 35 percent during the
next several days, but remain above critical thresholds.
Red flag conditions are not expected.
With river levels running at or below base flows and no widespread
heavy rain expected, flooding concerns are at a minimum.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 94 69 95 71 / 10 20 10 20 10
Panama City 71 90 73 90 75 / 0 20 10 10 10
Dothan 68 93 72 94 71 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 69 94 71 95 71 / 10 20 20 10 10
Valdosta 69 95 68 96 70 / 10 30 20 20 10
Cross City 69 92 69 92 71 / 10 30 20 30 10
Apalachicola 71 89 73 89 75 / 0 10 10 20 10